미국의 군사개입정책 변화와 양안 분쟁 개입 가능성에 관한 연구: 타이완의 지정학적 시사점과 전략적 딜레마
Shifts in U.S. Military Intervention Policy and Prospects for Cross-Strait Conflict: Geopolitical Implications and Strategic Dilemmas for Taiwan
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초록
본 연구는 타이완 문제를 둘러싼 미국과 중국의 전략적 갈등을 분석하고, 양국의 정책 변화가 동북아 지역 안보에 미치는 영향을 고찰한다. 미국은 냉전 이후 세계 경찰 역할을 자임하며 해외 개입을 지속해 왔으나, 9.11 테러 이후 “테러와의 전쟁”과 2008년 경제 위기 등으로 인해 해외 개입 전략을 축소하여 동아시아에서의 개입 우선순위에도 변화가 생겼다. 한편 중국은 타이완 통일을 중요한 국가적 목표로 삼고 있으며, 이를 위해 군사력 증강과 외교적 압박을 강화하고 있다. 미국의 양안 분쟁 개입 가능성과 제한 요인을 타이완 관계법을 중심으로 분석하고, 미국의 개입 여부가 양안 관계와 동북아 안보에 미치는 영향을 평가한다. 또한 향후 미국의 제한적 개입 가능성 하에서 동아시아 국가들의 자주적 방어 역량 강화를 제언한다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the strategic conflict between the United States and China over the Taiwan issue, examining how shifts in both nations' policies impact security in Northeast Asia. Since the Cold War, the United States has positioned itself as a global police force, consistently engaging in foreign interventions. However, following the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. began recalibrating its foreign engagement strategy, leading to adjustments in its prioritization of East Asian involvement. Meanwhile, China has underscored the unification with Taiwan as a core national objective, intensifying its military build-up and diplomatic pressure to achieve this goal. This paper analyzes the potential for U.S. intervention in cross-strait disputes within the framework of the Taiwan Relations Act, identifying factors that could limit such involvement. Furthermore, it evaluates the implications of possible U.S. intervention scenarios on cross-strait relations and security dynamics in Northeast Asia. In light of a potentially restrained U.S. stance, the study recommends strengthening the autonomous defense capacities of East Asian nations.
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