중국에 대한 일본의 위협인식과 미⋅일 동맹: ‘위협균형론’을 중심으로
Japan’s Threat Perception against China and the US-Japan Alliance: Balance of Threat Perspective
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초록
본 연구의 목적은 탈냉전 이후 미⋅일 동맹의 변화과정에 영향을 미친 요인을 밝히는것이다. 이를 위해서 본 연구는 국가는 자국에 가장 위협적인 국가에 대항하여 균형을 이루려는경향이 있다고 보는 위협균형론에 기초하여 연구문제를 상정한다. 위협균형론은 위협이 총체적국력, 지리적 근접성, 공격적 군사력, 공격적 의도라는 네 가지 요인으로 이뤄져 있다고주장한다. 그러므로 본 연구는 위협균형론이 제시한 네 가지 요인에 기초하여 일본의 대중국위협인식이 어느 정도 인지를 실증적으로 측정한다. 그리고 미⋅일 동맹의 변화과정을 추적함으로써 두 변수 간의 인과적 관계를 규명한다. 연구결과, 일본의 대중국 위협인식은 냉전이종식된 이후 현재까지 꾸준히 강화되는 양상을 보였다. 중국의 총체적 국력, 중국과 일본간의 지리적 근접성, 중국의 공격적 군사력, 중국의 공격적 의도가 일본의 대중국 위협인식에영향을 미쳤다. 그리고 일본의 대중국 위협인식이 높아짐에 따라 미⋅일 동맹도 점점 더공고화되었다. 본 연구의 결과가 함의하는 바는 세 가지이다. 첫째, 위협균형론을 검증했다는것이다. 이 연구는 다른 국가에 대한 위협인식이 동맹의 형성과 변화과정에 영향을 미치는요인이라는 것을 보여준다. 둘째, 위협균형론에 대한 실증적인 검증을 시도했다는 것이다. 위협인식이라는 추상적인 개념을 측정 가능한 변수로 정의하였기 때문에 이론의 설명력을높였다고 할 수 있다. 셋째, 중국과 일본의 관계에 이론적 설명력을 부여함으로써 양국 간의현상을 보다 적절하게 설명하고 예측할 수 있다는 점이다.
Abstract
This thesis identifies the factors that influence changes of the US-Japan alliance after the post-Cold War. For the purpose of this research, I assume the research problem based on the balance of threat theory that states tend to balance against their most threatening state. The balance of threat theory argues that threats consist of four factors: aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive power, and offensive intentions. Therefore, I empirically measure the degree of Japan’s threat perception against China based on the factors suggested by the theory. Then, I track the changing process of the US-Japan alliance. As a result, Japan’s threat perception against China steadily has been strengthened since the end of the Cold War. China’s aggregate power, geographical proximity between China and Japan, China’s offensive power, China’s offensive intentions have an impact on Japan’s threat perception against China. And the more Japan’s threat perception to China increases, the more the US-Japan alliance consolidates. To present a theoretical implications based on the result of the analysis, it is as follows. First, the balance of threat theory was verified. This thesis shows that threat perceptions against other countries are factors affecting the formation and change of the alliance. Second, it tries to empirically verify the balance of threat theory. Since the abstract concept of threat perception is defined as measurable variables, it enhances the theoretical explanatory power of the balance of threat theory. Third, by providing theoretical explanation to the relationship between China and Japan, it can more appropriately explain and predict the phenomena between the two countries.
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