우리나라 인구의 수도권 집중, 수출, 그리고 경제 성장 간의 인과관계 분석
The causal relationship among export, population growth of metropolitan areas of Seoul, and economic growth in Korea
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본 연구는 우리나라 인구의 수도권 집중, 수출, 그리고 경제성장 간의 인과관계 분석을 1990년부터 2022년까지의 연별자료를 활용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 구체적으로 Granger 인과관계 검정 기법과 Geweke(1982)의 방법론을 이용하여 분석을 시행하였다. Granger 인과관계 분석결과 수도권 인구집중, 수출, 그리고 경제성장 간에는 상호 인과관계가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 경우 어떠한 요인의 인과성이 타요인에 미치는 설명력이 큰지가 이슈가 될 수 있기 때문에, Geweke(1982) 방법을 이용하여 선형 의존관계를 분해한 결과, 경제성장이 수출을 유발하는 설명력이 정도가 상대적으로 더 크고, 경제성장이 수도권 인구집중현상을 유발하는 효과가 상대적으로 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과는 수도권 인구집중과 수출이 경제성장을 유발하는 효과보다 반대의 유발효과가 더 크다는 의미이다. 그러므로 지속적인 경제성장을 위해서는 수도권 인구집중을 해결할 수 있는 정책적인 접근이 요구된다.
Abstract
This study investigates the causal relationship among population concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area, exports, and economic growth in Korea by utilizing yearly data from 1990 to 2022. By utilizing the Granger causality test method, this study found a bidirectional Granger causal relationship between population concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area, exports, and economic growth. Based on Geweke’s(1982) method, this study found that causal power is higher in the economic growth between exports and economic growth, as well as population concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area and economic growth. Therefore, for sustainable economic growth, it is necessary to develop policies to solve the problem of population concentration in metropolitan areas.
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