중국 군사전략의 변화에 대한 분석
An Analysis on China’s Evolving Military Strategy
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초록
중국이 강대국으로서 동아시아지역에서 미국과 함께 양극질서(bipolar order) 시대를 열어가고 있다. 중국의 경제적·군사적 성장과 미국과의 경쟁은 한국을 비롯한 동아시아 국가들의 안보 전략에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 강대국의 경쟁 가운데 지역 국가들은 이익과 손실을 계산하고 이를 재평가 해야 하는 상황이다. 예를 들어, 한국은 미국과 중국 중 하나를 선택하라는 압력에 직면해 있다. 동아시아의 권력 역학이 변화함에 따라 중국은 동아시아에 대한 영향력을 높이고 지리적으로 확대되는 국익을 보호하기 위해 군사를 현대화하고 개혁하고 있다. 중국 지도자들은 인민해방군의 군사력과 원정작전 능력 강화가 지역안보에 긍정적인 역할을 한다고 주장하기 위해 군사외교와 안보협력을 적극적으로 이용하고 있다. 외국군과의 연합훈련을 통해 다른 국가들과 상호운용성을 높이고 협력하려는 의지를 내비침으로써 전반적인 억제력을 고양하려는 의도도 보인다. 중국의 군사력 증가와 한국과의 지리적 근접성으로 인해 중국의 발전하는 군사전략을 이해하고 평가하는 것이 시급하며, 이는 한국의 국가안보 전략에 중요한 시사점을 제공한다. 이 연구는 오픈소스 데이터를 사용하여 중국의 국익 확장과 안보 환경에 미치는 영향이 현재 및 미래 군사전략 측면에서 의미하는 바를 분석한다. 이를 통해 본고는 한국의 국가안보 전략을 수립하는 데 유용한 지식을 제공할 것이다.
Abstract
China is inaugurating an era of bipolar order in East Asia with the United States as its chief rival. China’s economic and military growth and its competition with the United States are exerting a major influence on the national security strategies of East Asian countries, including South Korea. In the era of great-power rivalry, the regional countries need to recalculate their expected gains and losses; South Korea, for example, faces increasing pressure to choose between the United States and China. As the power dynamics in East Asia change, China is modernizing and reforming its military to increase its influence in East Asia and protect its geographically expanding national interests. At the same time, Chinese leaders are using military diplomacy and security cooperation to make the case that reinforcing the expeditionary capability of the People’s Liberation Army plays a positive role in regional security. China also intends to enhance deterrence by increasing interoperability with other countries through joint military exercises. Due to China’s growing military power and geographical proximity to South Korea, understanding and evaluating China’s evolving military strategy is particularly urgent and will provide valuable implications for the national security strategies of South Korea. Using open-source data, this study aims to analyze what China’s expansion of its national interests and the impact of this expansion on the security environment mean in terms of its current and evolving military strategy. By doing so, this paper will provide useful knowledge in establishing South Korea’s own evolving national security strategy.
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