회색지대의 현상타파 전략: 살라미 전술과 기정사실화
Revising the Status Quo without A War in the Gray Zone: Salami Tactics and Fait Accompli
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국가 간의 전쟁도 평화도 아닌 회색지대에서 일방이 도발적 시도를 통해영토 변화가 발생하는 경우가 있다. 낮은 수준의 반복된 시도가 쌓여 변화를 시도하는 살라미 전술과 빠르게 분쟁 지역을 점령하는 기정사실화가 그러한 경우이다. 이러한 시도에 상대 국가는 때로는 전쟁을 불사하며 대응하지만, 때로는 변화를 수용하기도 한다. 이러한 회색지대의 영토 현상타파 전략은 어떠한 경우에 성공하고, 어떠한 경우에 실패하는 것일까? 이 연구는 시도하는 변화의 크기, 전쟁의 승리 가능성, 전쟁 비용 및 결의에 대한 비교를 통해 센카쿠 열도, 란 쿠츠·카슈미르, 크림반도, 포클랜드 제도의 사례를 분석한다. 이를 통해 대한민국과 주변국 간의 영토 분쟁에 대한 함의를 도출하고 이에 대한 대비의 중요성을 강조한다.
Abstract
In the gray zone which is neither war nor peace, borders between states sometimes change by provocative attempts of one side. The attempts are either Salami tactics or Fait Accompli: the former is an accumulation of low-leveled repeated changes and the latter is a swift occupation. Against these attempts, the other side sometimes counters not hesitating to wage war, but also in some cases, accepts changes. Then, in which case, do attempts succeed? This paper compares the size of changes, the probability of victory, and the cost of war and resolution about it among cases of Senkaku Islands, Rann of KutchㆍKashmir, Crimea, and Falkland. The result of the analysis could give the implication of territorial disputes between the Republic of Korea and neighboring states. The results of the analysis show the following. Attempts of changing borders could be successful when the size of attempted territories is small and the relative power of dissatisfied states overwhelms the other side. Also, the attempts proved to be failed when dissatisfied states underestimate the resolution of the other side. This gives significant implications to the Republic of Korea, given its ongoing and possible territorial disputes with neighbors.
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