환율변동과 기업의 노동생산성간의 관계 : 한국 제조업 개별기업 패널자료 분석
The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Labour Productivity : Evidence from Korean Manufacturing Firm Panel Data
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초록
본 연구는 우리나라 962개 제조업기업을 대상으로 1993-2010년 기간 중 연간자료를 사용하여 실질환율변동이 생산성에 미친 효과를 실증분석한 것이다. 실질환율변동이 기업의 수출, 국내매출 및 총매출에 미친 효과를 분석하고 생산성변동에 미친 효과를 최종적으로 분석한다. 본 연구의 기본이론은 Fung(2008)에 기초하고 있으며 추정모형은 패널자료 고정효과모형이다. 본 연구의 차별성은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 개별기업의 미시자료를 사용한 패널분석으로 국내에서는 최초의시도이다. 둘째, 기업군을 대기업과 중소기업, 수출기업과 내수기업으로 나누어기업군별 특성을 추출한다. 본 연구의 실증분석에 의하면 실질환율이 10% 상승하면 생산성은 2.2% 증가하는 것으로 나타나 실질환율의 상승은 기업의 생산성을 증대시키는 요인으로 작용한 것으로 풀이된다. 대기업과 중소기업, 수출기업과 내수기업으로 기업군을 나누어 분석한 경우에도 모두 양(+)의 관계를 가진 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 실질환율의 상승은 총매출의 증가 즉 규모확대에 따른 생산성증대효과를 가지는 것으로나타났다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate movements onlabour productivity of Korean manufacturing firms using firm-level paneldata during the period between 1993 and 2010. The paper calculatesindustry-specific effective real exchange rates and examines its impactson export, domestic sales, total sales and labour productivity employingfixed-effects model to account for firms' heterogeneity. Especially thepaper attempts to regroup firms into subgroups such as large firms vs. medium and small firms, and exporting firms vs. non-export firms, andidentify any significant differences between these subgroups. The empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation of 10% tendsto increase labour productivity of 2.2%. In addition for all of the subgroups,exchange rate depreciation led to the increase of labour productivity. Alsoit was shown that the productivity improvement induced by real exchangerate depreciation could be the result of firm scale expansion.
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