상품교역에 미치는 종교의 영향에 대한 실증분석
An Empirical Investigation of the Impacts of Religion on International Trade in Goods
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본 연구는 종교가 국제무역에 미치는 영향을 중력모형에 기초하여 실증분석한다. 중력모형을 통한 추정에서 무역실적이 없는 경우가 제외되는 선택편의(selection bias)문제와 데이터 자체의 이분산(heteroskedasticity)문제를 해결하기 위해 Poisson Pseudo Maximun Likelihoood(PPML)추정기법과 Heckman의 2단계 추정기법(two stage selection correction)을 사용하여 2007년의 상품교역에 종교가 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석모형에 따라 개별 종교가 교역에 미치는 영향은 상이하였다. 그러나 개별 종교의 영향을 모두 합산한 결과는 예상대로 종교의 유사성정도, 종교의 제도적 효과, 종교의 네트웍효과 모두 상품교역에 상당히 긍정적인 역할을 하고 있는 것이 확인되었다. 종교의 유사성정도는 PPML모형에서 식민지관계보다 더 많이 교역에 영향을 미치고 있었고 Heckman 모형에서는 RTA보다 상품교역에 더 긍정적인 역할을 하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 종교의 제도적효과와 네트웍효과는 PPML모형에서 다른 문화적·제도적 요인만큼 교역을 활성화하지는 않는 것으로 드러났다. 그러나 Heckman 모형에서 종교의 제도적효과는 인위적·제도적요인인 RTA보다 교역을 더 활성화하는 것으로 추정되었고 종교의 네트웍효과도 RTA와 거의 유사한 정도로 교역을 확대하는 것이 관찰되었다. 종합하면, 종교는 여타 문화적·제도적 요인에 뒤지지 않는 교역의 중요한 촉매역할을 하고 있는 것이 확인되었다. 요컨대, 종교는 관측되지 않는 비공식적 교역장벽인 문화적·제도적 차이를 극복하게 하고 거래비용을 낮춤으로써 상품교역을 확대하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper attempts to investigate the influence of religion on international trade in goods using modified gravity model. To avoid biased results stemming from sample selection due to zero trade flow and heteroskedasticity problem, this study used Poisson Pseudo-Maximun Likelihoood(PPML) estimation suggested by Santos Silva and Tenreyro(2006) and Heckman Sample Selection Model to estimate the effects of religion on trade in goods in 2007. Depending on estimation method and individual religion, the impact differs from one another. However, this study reveals that the combined effects of each individual religion on goods trade are trade promoting in terms of religious similiarity, religious institutional effects, and religious network effects. The extent of religious similarity, measured by combined probabilities of meeting trading partners with the same religious affiliations, are particularly more trade faciliating than colonial ties in PPML estimation. In Heckman Sample Selection Model, it is more trade creating than conventional RTAs. Religious institutional effects and religious network effects also exert positive influences on goods trade. More specifically in our Heckman Model, they are enhancing goods trade almost as much as RTAs. In summary, religion facilitates goods trade by reducing transaction cost arising from unobservable cultural and institutional differences.
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