지역무역협정의 무역창출효과 추정
An Estimation of Trade Creation Effects of Some RTAs
1
조회
0
다운로드
6
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
지역무역협정의 유효성 추정에 있어서 주로 사용된 중력모형(gravity model)의 경우 계량분석 기법상 FTA더미변수의 내생성 문제를 내포하고 있다. 이의 해결을 위해 본 연구는 국가쌍 고정효과, 국가쌍 고정효과 및 시간더미, 그리고 ‘시간에 따라 변하는 국가별 고정효과’(time-varying country fixed effects)를 도입하여 10개의 FTA를 추정하였고 아울러 양국간 교역의 지속효과를 감안한 동태모형인 도구변수(instrumental variable)방법을 사용하여 지역무역협정의 무역창출효과를 추정하였다. 몇몇 지역무역협정의 경우 ‘다자간저항(multilateral resistance)’효과를 흡수하는 정도가 크면 클수록 무역창출효과 역시 줄어드는 것을 관찰할 수 있는데, 이는 국별 이질적인 요소를 통제하지 않을 경우 무역창출효과의 크기가 과대 추정될 수 있음을 시사한다. 둘째, 널리 알려진 바와 같이 도구변수를 사용하였을 경우 무역창출 더미변수의 회귀계수는 OLS추정보다는 더 낮게, 그러나 고정효과추정보다는 더 높게 나타나고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 아울러, 도구변수 추정의 결과 무역창출효과는 평균적으로 높게 나타난 반면 무역전환효과는 발생하지 않았으며 약간의 긍정적인 대외개방성이 나타났다.
Abstract
It is well known that there are some endogeneity biases when it comes to measure the effectiveness of RTAs in terms of its trade creation effects. To avoid unobservable omitted variable bias, various estimation experiments were used from country-pair fixed effect, fixed effect combined with time dummy and finally to time-varying country dummies. In addition, taking the “persistence effect" of bilateral trade into consideration, an Instrumental-variables estimations were used to measure the trade creating/diverting effects. What is interesting is to see the trade creating effects decreasing more in some RTAs(EC, CACM, MERCOSUR and ASEAN) if we use more rigorous experiment, i.e., in terms of absorbing the effects of “multilateral resistance." This could suggest that the trade creating effects are over-estimated without controlling country heterogeneity bias. Secondly, when we estimate the regression coefficient of aggregated FTA dummy(orta), using IV estimation, we could find that it is lower than that of OLS and higher than that of the Fixed effect estimation. In addition, according to the IV estimation results, the trade creating effects were shown to be somewhat higher, whereas the trade diverting effects did not appear.
참고문헌 (30)
- Anderson,J.E., "Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle", American Economic Review, 93(1), pp.170~192 (2003)
- Anderson,T.W., "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, pp.598~606 (1981)
- Arellano M., "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp.277~297 (1991)
- Baier S.L., "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade", Journal of International Economics, 71, pp.72~95 (2007)
- Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equations, "Baldwin,R.", ~, pp.12516 (2006)
- Benedictis L.D., "Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models", Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy, 5(1), pp.1~26 (2004)
- Bergstrand,J., "The gravity equation in international trade: some microeconomic foundation and empirical evidence", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, pp.474~481 (1985)
- Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice, "Bond S.", Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, ~ (2002)
- Bown C. P., "A. “China's Export Growth and the China Safeguard: Threats to the World Trading System?", working paper available at http:", ~cbown, pp.research.html[DOI]
- survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models, "Cardamone P.", European Commission, ~ (2007)
- Cheng I.H., "Controlling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade and Integration", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87(1), pp.49~63 (2005)
- The trade and investment effects of Preferential trading arrangements, "Dee,P.", ~, pp.10160 (2003)
- Trading Blocs and Currency Blocs, "Frankel,J.", ~, pp.4335 (1993)
- Fiorentino R., "The Changeing Landscape of Regional Trade Agreements: 2006 update" (2006), WTO
- Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trading Blocs, "Frankel,J.", ~, pp.5272 (1995)
- Frankel,J.A., "Regional Trading Blocs" (1997), Institute for International Economics
- Frankel,J., "An estimate of the effect of common currencies on trade and income", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp.437~466 (2002)
- Ghosh,S., "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating? An application of extreme bounds analysis", Journal of International Economics, 63, pp.369~395 (2004)
- The Gains from Trade Monopolistic Competition: Specification, Estimation, and Mis-Specification, "Lai H.", ~, pp.9169 (2002)
- 이종화, "Measuring Trade Creating Effects of RTAs: A Fixed Effect Estimation Approach", Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, 12(1), pp.139~156 (2008), 대외경제정책연구원
- Lee,Jong-Wha, "Trade barriers and trade flows across countries and industries", Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, pp.372~382 (1997)
- How to do xtabond2; An Introduction to the difference and system GMM in Stata, "Roodman D.", Center for Global Development, ~, pp.103 (2006)
- Rose,A.K., "One money, one market? The effects of common currencies on international trade", Economic Policy, 15, pp.7~46 (2000)
- Rose,Andrew, "Do we really know that the WTO increases trade", American Economic Review, 94(1), pp.98~114 (2004)
- Subramanian A., "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly", Journal of International Economics, 72, pp.151~175 (2006)
- Soloaga,I., "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade", North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12, pp.1~29 (2001)
- Are Regional Trade Agreements in Asia Stumbling or Building Blocks? Implications for Mekong-3 Countries, "Tumbarello P.", ~ (2007)
- Thursby,J., "Bilateral trade flows, the Linder hypothesis, and exchange risk", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, pp.488~495 (1987)
- Viner,J., "The Customs Union Issue" (1950), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Wooldridge,Jeffrey M., "Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data" (2002), MITPress