준칙기반 담뱃세 인상방안에 대한 정책 모의실험
Rule-Based Tobacco Tax Policy and Policy Simulations
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초록
본 연구는 현재 정부의 재량(discretion)에 의해 결정되고 있는 담뱃세 인상정책에 대한 대안으로서 준칙(rule)에 기반한 인상정책을 제시하였다. 제안된 준칙은 담배의 제세부담금을 매년 소비자물가상승률에 기반하여 인상하되, 물가상승률의 변동성과 불확실성을 완화할 수 있는 안전장치를 마련하였으며, 가격탄력성이 상대적으로 낮은 일반 궐련형 담배에 대하여 궐련형 전자담배보다 더 높은 인상률을 적용하였다. 통계청 가계동향조사를 사용한 담배 수요함수 추정, 해외 문헌 연구, 소비자물가 상승률 시계열 모형 추정을 통해 정책 모의실험에 필요한 모수(parameter)를 도출하였으며, 정책 모의실험 결과 이러한 준칙기반 인상방안이 담배 소비를 억제하고 조세수입을 증대시키는 담뱃세 목적에 효과적인 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This study presents a rule-based tobacco tax policy as an alternative to the current discretionary policy. The proposed rule sets the tobacco tax rates annually based on the consumer price index with a safety measure to mitigate the volatility and uncertainty of inflation rates. Moreover, the tax rate for traditional combustible cigarettes is set one percent point higher than that for e-cigarettes because combustible cigarettes have a relatively lower demand price elasticity, compared to e-cigarettes. Parameters for the policy simulations are derived using the Korea National Statistics Office's Household Income and Expenditure Survey for tobacco demand function estimation, literature surveys, and time-series model estimation of consumer price inflation. The results of the policy simulations indicate that the proposed rule-based policy is effective in reducing tobacco consumption and increasing tax revenue.
참고문헌 (21)
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