중국의 대한국, 대일본 무역통계 오차와 재추정

Abstract

This paper aims to prove that Chinese trade statistics discrepancies does not only happen within the trade returns of China and U.S., but occurs in trades with China’s other main trade partners as well. For instance, within trade with Korea and Japan. In this paper, I will analyze the following questions; 1) Does trade statistics discrepancies also happen in the China-Korea and China-Japan trade returns? 2) What are the reasons for the China-Korea and China-Japan trade returns discordance? Does Hong Kong’s re-exportation of goods, which causes the China-U.S. trade returns discordance, affect the China-Korea and China-Japan trade returns discordance in the same way? 3) Is it possible to solve the existing trade returns discordance in China-Korea and China-Japan trade by readjusting Hong Kong’s re-exportation of goods? 4) Was the change in the trade returns finding method of China a reason for trade returns discordance between 1985 and 2000? As a result, I confirmed that China calculates trade returns by taking full advantage of Hong Kong’s role in trade with Korea and Japan. This is also clearly shown in the China-U.S. trade returns finding method as well. Recently, China-Korea and China-Japan trade returns discordance have been affecting the trade negotiation process. In fact, China often pressures other countries to open their markets claiming that there is trade inequality. Therefore, to solve the issue of trade returns discordance, there is a need for states that trade with China, including Korea, Japan and the U.S., to jointly set a system for some type of action against China’s trade returns finding methods. Establishing a joint commission on trade returns with China to conduct cooperative research would be beneficial for the U.S., Japan, and Korea; considerably more beneficial than each country attempting to settle the disparity on its own.