한·중·일(韓中日) 교역구조의 부가가치기준 재분석

Abstract

The 21st century has been marked by China’s involvement in international trade and the rapid globalization of supply chains. During this time, China has become the ‘factory of the world.’ The restructuring of East-Asian trade relations has worked for the benefit of Korea ― Korea gets from Japan intermediate goods with advanced technologies, adds value and sells intermediate goods to China, where final goods are manufactured and exported to advanced economies. Using recent OECD-WTO statistics of Trade-in-Value-Added (TiVA), I find that China is already leaving the status of ‘Korea’s factory’ and becoming the ‘market of the world.’ The domestic value-added content share in Chinese total exports has been growing since the late 2000s. Japanese intermediate goods still play an important role in Korea’s exports, while the final assembly is done in countries other than China, such as Vietnam. There is no evidence supporting the much-feared ‘sandwiched Korea’ narrative. Although Korea’s trade balance has been improving in the late 2010s in value-added terms, Korean firms need to prepare for political risks such as unilateral trade restrictions placed by China or Japan.