바그다드와 아르빌 내부 갈등: 주권과 자결권 논쟁으로 본 이라크 연방주의 위기
Intra-Conflicts Between Baghdad and Erbil: The Crisis of Iraqi Federalism Through the Lens of Sovereignty and Self-Determination
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Since 2003, the Kurdish region in Iraq has emerged as the most stable area, with the development of independent oil exports contributing to regional stability and economic prosperity. Consequently, Erbil has gained greater confidence in pursuing Kurdistan independence. The 2017 independence referendum organized by Erbil became a pivotal event, challenging federalism by creating a conflict between dual sovereignties within a single nation. From the perspective of the Baghdad government, which advocates for a unified Iraq, the Kurdish autonomous region represents a significant obstacle to achieving national stabilization based on the Constitution. This marks a critical turning point. More than 20 years after the adoption of the Iraqi Constitution, the relationship between the central government and the regional government has reached to its most fragile status, with the balance of power shifting toward Baghdad. Federalism remains the central issue defining this dynamic. Erbil appears likely to accept the newly established hierarchy and protect its interests through strategic alliances with Shia political parties. Conversely, Baghdad seems inclined toward centralizedgovernance, aiming to strongly control internal conflicts and prevent regional repercussions, such as those linked to crises like the Israel-Hamas war.
Abstract
Since 2003, the Kurdish region in Iraq has emerged as the most stable area, with the development of independent oil exports contributing to regional stability and economic prosperity. Consequently, Erbil has gained greater confidence in pursuing Kurdistan independence. The 2017 independence referendum organized by Erbil became a pivotal event, challenging federalism by creating a conflict between dual sovereignties within a single nation. From the perspective of the Baghdad government, which advocates for a unified Iraq, the Kurdish autonomous region represents a significant obstacle to achieving national stabilization based on the Constitution. This marks a critical turning point. More than 20 years after the adoption of the Iraqi Constitution, the relationship between the central government and the regional government has reached to its most fragile status, with the balance of power shifting toward Baghdad. Federalism remains the central issue defining this dynamic. Erbil appears likely to accept the newly established hierarchy and protect its interests through strategic alliances with Shia political parties. Conversely, Baghdad seems inclined toward centralizedgovernance, aiming to strongly control internal conflicts and prevent regional repercussions, such as those linked to crises like the Israel-Hamas war.