2019년 홍콩 시위에 대한 중국의 대응을 어떻게 바라볼 것인가?: 인권 정치학의 제이론을 통해 본 중국의 행동
The 2019 Hong Kong Protests and (Re)actions of the Chinese Government
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본 논문은 홍콩에서 2019년 3월부터 범죄인 인도법 저지를 위해 시작되어 2019년 12월 현재까지 지속되고 있는 시위에 대한 중국의 대응을 인권 정치학의 이론들을 통해 분석한다. 2019년 홍콩 시위에 대한 수많은 언론 보도가 있었지만, 사태의 진행과 현재의 상황을 어떻게 해석하고 전망할지에 대해 먼저 이론적인 시각들을 검토할 필요가 있다. 첫째, 인권의 국내 정치 이론으로 정부의 합리적․전략적 선택으로서의 인권 탄압 결정에 대해 살펴보고, 둘째, 지도자, 관료, 국민 사이의 주인-대리인 관계에 대한 검토를 통해 인권 침해의 제도적․구조적 측면이 홍콩 문제 분석에 어떤 도움을 주는지 제시하며, 셋째, 인권의 국제 정치 이론들, 즉 국제 인권 규범의 역할 그리고 인권 외교의 역할에 대한 논의를 통해 홍콩 문제에 대한 중국의 태도를 결정하는 요인들을 살펴본다. 이러한 인권 정치학의 이론적 시각을 바탕으로 2019년 홍콩 시위를 살펴보면, 시위대와 중국 정부 간 갈등 고조의 과정은 시위 규모 축소와 질서 회복을 바라며 개입 수위를 조절해 온 정부의 행동과 이러한 상황에서 요구 조건의 확대와 시위의 조직화로 이어온 시위대의 상호작용으로 설명할 수 있다. 또한 홍콩 시민과 홍콩 당국, 중국 정부와 홍콩 당국이라는 이중의 주인-대리인 관계에서 행정장관을 비롯한 홍콩 당국의 태도가 시위대의 판단에 혼란을 야기했을 가능성이 있으며, 중국 정부가 시위 개입 수위를 조절한 데는 선진국들의 압력이 영향을 끼쳤겠지만 중국 정부에 미치는 영향은 상당히 제한적이라는 결론을 얻을 수 있다.
Abstract
This article analyzes the 2019 Hong Kong protests and the response of Chinese government through the lens of political science theories of human rights protection/violation. First, it adopts a group of explanations of the dynamic protest-repression relationship and interprets the interactions between Hong Kong protesters and the Chinese government based on rational calculation. Second, it examines the relationship among Hong Kongers, the Hong Kong administration, and the Chinese government using a two-level principal-agent conceptual framework and suggests a possibility that there were confusions associated with the suspension and withdrawal of the extradition bill. Third, it argues that the human rights pressure from the international society only has a limited influence on the Chinese government, looking at the behavior of Chinese government in the international human rights regime as well as in the bilateral relations with human rights promoter states. Based on the explanations, this article forecasts that the Chinese government is likely to continue the repression on Hong Kong protesters and increase the level of its direct rule over Hong Kong.
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