자본축적과 장기 구조적 실업
Capital Accumulation and Long Run Structural Unemployment
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초록
이 논문은 ‘현실의 장기 구조적 실업동학’에 대한 지배적인 해석 틀인 ‘자연실업률 이론 패러다임’의 한계를 유럽의 실업현상에 대한 설명의 오류와 이론적 시계의 협소함 측면에서 지적하고, 좀 더 설명력 있는 대안적 실업이론 구성을 모색하고 있다. 유럽 경제를 대상으로 한 분석에서 새롭게 주목 받고 있는 장기 구조적 실업의 결정요소는 자본축적 수준이다. 우리의 분석에 따르면, 이 이론적 착상은 한국 경제의 데이터를 이용한 시계열 분석에서도 확인된다. 자본축적과 장기 구조적 실업률 사이의 장기적 관계가 존재한다면, 글로벌 경쟁 환경에서 일자리를 확대하고, 방어하기 위해 노동시장 유연성 정책을 지나치게 강조하는 것은 실업정책의 중요한 고리를 하나 놓치는 것과 다름없다. ‘실업’ 문제를 노동시장의 인센티브제도 만의 문제가 아닌 시스템의 구조적 한계로 인식하고, 대안적 정책을 고안해야한다.
Abstract
This paper is attempting to build up a new alternative unemployment model which can have more explanatory power, in criticizing 'the dominant theoretical paradigm of natural rate theory of (structural long run) unemployment' in terms of both errors in explanation of european unemployment and narrow theoretical viewpoints. A new determinant variable which has been taken hold of in the analyses of european unemployment is capital accumulation. According to our research, this idea can be confirmed by time series analysis (cointegration analysis) using Korean data. If there can be long run relationships between capital accumulation and long run structural unemployment, emphasizing too much labor market flexibility policies to defend jobs in the environment of global competition could face a great missing link in labor market policy. 'Unemployment' should be considered as a structural limit of the system, not just only an incentive problem. Based upon this perspective, we should design alternative policies to defend jobs.
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