자본 축적과 구조적 실업 그리고 소득분배의 변화
Capital Accumulation, Structural Unemployment and Changes of Income Distribution
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본 연구에서는 자본 축적의 동학과 맞물려 있는 구조적 실업이 소득분배를 어떻게 변화시키는지를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해서 자본 축적률과 구조적 실업 사이의 관계 그리고 구조적 실업과 노동자간 노동소득 분배 사이의 관계를 분석하였다. 분석 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 지난 30여 년 동안의 시계열 자료에 대한 분석은 자본 축적률과 구조적 실업률 사이에 장기적인 균형관계가 존재함을 확인시켜 줌으로써 1997년 위기 이후의 높은 구조적 실업이 축적률의 저하에 따른 것임을 보여주었다. 둘째, 구조적 실업은 노동자 사이의 소득분배를 변화시키는 것으로 나타났다. 구조적 실업은 저학력, 비정규, 여성 가구주들이 주로 속한 하위 소득 계층의 소득을 1997년 위기 이후 더욱 악화시키고 있었다. 셋째, 실업률을 구조적 실업률과 경기순환적 실업률로 분해하여 소득분배 현상을 분석하였는데 구조적 실업률의 영향이 더욱 크게 나타남으로써 1997년 이후 소득분배의 악화가 일시적인 경기순환적 요인이 아니라 구조적인 현상임을 보여 주었다.
Abstract
We analyse how structural unemployment affects the income distribution. For this work, we analyse the relation between the rate of accumulation and structural unemployment, and the relation of structural unemployment and income distribution among workers. Main findings are as followings. First, time series analysis for the last thirty years indicates that there is a cointegration relation between the rate of capital accumulation and the rate of structural unemployment. This proves that the high rate of structural unemployment after the 1997 crisis is the result of the falling rate of capital accumulation. Second, structural unemployment rate affects the income distribution among workers. After the 1997 crisis, structural unemployment leads to the significant decline of the income of the low－educational workers, contingent workers and the female heads of household who largely belong to the lower income brackets. Lastly, the decomposition of unemployment to the rate of structural unemployment and the rate of cyclical unemployment show that the impact of the former on income redistribution is bigger than the impact of the latter. It means that income inequality after the 1997 crisis is not a temporary and cyclical phenomenon but a structural one.
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