세계경제 질서의 다극화와 미국의 경제 패권
The US Economic Hegemony In a Multipolar World Economy
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1970년대 이후 미 경제력의 상대적 약화와 세계경제의 다극화 추세에도 불구하고 미국은 여전히 경성권력과 연성권력 양 측면에서 압도적인 우위를 가진 유일한 패권국으로 남아있다. 이 글에서는 1980년대 이후 다극화된 세계경제 구조를 관통하는 미국의 패권적 지배력의 특징을 해외직접투자를 기반으로 한 미국경제의 ‘비영토적’ 글로벌화로 규정한다. 미국의 경제패권은 글로벌 경제의 공공재를 제공하고 생산의 분산을 통해 경제적 이익을 타국과 공유하는 가운데 미국자본을 최대의 수혜자로 만드는 능력에 기초하고 있다. 이 점에서 미국의 경제패권은 과거 팍스브리태니커체제의 영토성과 중앙집권적 단극질서와는 근본적으로 다른 성격을 갖는다. 미국자본의 비영토적 글로벌화는 글로벌 차원에서 경제력과 자본의 분산을 추동하는 원심력과 그것이 초래한 다극화된 경제 질서를 다시 통합하는 구심력을 동시발휘하고 이를 통해 미국의 패권적 지배력을 관철시킨다. 이러한 특징은 미국 중심의 패권적 질서를 위협할 만한 경쟁국의 부상을 어렵게 하는 원인이자 동시에 미 경제패권의 역동적인 지속성과 복원력의 원천이 된다.
Abstract
As a result of the relative economic decline of the US and the successful catch-up development of Germany and Japan after the World War II a highly decentralized international economic order has emerged in the 1970s. The evolving decentralized global economic system, however, does not necessarily mean the decline of the US economic hegemony. Rather, the US economic hegemony has been re-constituted in the process of the US-led neoliberal economic globalization since the 1980’s. Until now, the US remains a pre-eminent hegemon equipped with sufficient hard and soft power resources. A dynamic resilience and substantiality of the US economic hegemony shown in the past decades is based on its “non-territorial” character with US capital’s expanding globally through FDI and financial investments. The US capital exports served as both centrifugal and centripetal force in the decentralized global economic system, while the US proved to be the biggest beneficiary of the emerging global production and investment networks. At the same time, it is noteworthy that the neoliberal global economic order fundamentally shaped by the US hegemony generates structural instability. The latest indication of this systemic deficiency is the 2008 global financial and economic crisis. Like the 1970s, the global economy is currently entering a messy and uncertain transition period. In the absence of potential competitors challenging to the US hegemony the US is likely to shape and dominate the global economic restructuring process as was the case in the 1970s after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system.
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