미국패권 변화의 동학과 세계체계분석의 경계들: 이론적 대안 모색을 위한 시론
The Dynamics of U.S. Hegemony and Frontiers of World-System Analysis
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초록
본 연구의 목적은 미국패권 변화에 관한 세계체계분석의 연구들을 비교, 분석하고 이론적 대안을 모색하는 것이다. 세계체계분석에 기반한 미국패권 연구는 1970-80년대 이래 세계자본주의의 구조적 동학에 주목해서 자본주의 세계체계와 미국패권의 변화를 설명하면서 중요한 기여를 해 왔다. 2008년 금융위기 이후 미국의 쇠퇴, 그리고 미중 패권경쟁과 관련해서 제기되고 있는 쟁점들 또한 세계체계분석이 지속적으로 천착해 온 문제들이었다. 이 때문에 금융위기 이후 세계체계분석 내부의 논쟁과 연구 또한 활기를 띠기 시작했고, 세계체계분석에 기반한 미국패권 연구 또한 다시 주목받고 있다. 본 연구는 세계체계분석의 대표적 연구들의 이론 구조, 시기별 미국패권 변화의 동학, 미국패권 이후에 대한 설명이 갖는 의의와 한계를 비판적으로 검토하고, 이러한 한계를 보완할 수 있는 이론적 대안으로 패권이행의 순환적 성격보다는 진화적 성격을, 패권의 보편성보다는 특수성을, 패권국의 현상유지적 태도보다는 수정주의적 전략을 더 적극적으로 고려할 필요가 있음을 제안했다.
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to examine previous research of world-system analysis on the dynamics of U.S. hegemony and to seek theoretical alternatives. Previous studies based on world-system analysis, such as the works of Immanuel Wallerstein, George Modelski, William Thompson, and Giovanni Arrighi, have contributed much to the studies on world hegemony and hegemonic transition. Moreover, since the 2008 financial crisis, the debate and research on the decline of U.S hegemony and U.S.-Sino hegemonic competition have been revitalized among world-system analysts. Despite major progress in the field, most studies failed to provide consistent explanation for the dynamics of U.S. hegemony. This paper proposes three alternative perspectives for recent debates of world-system analysis: to define hegemonic transition as an evolutionary process rather than a cyclical process, to put specificity of U.S. hegemony above universality of it, and to give significant consideration to strategy of the hegemon as a revisionist actor.
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