미국의 구조적 통화권력과 미-중 무역불균형의 정치경제
U.S. structural monetary power and the political economy of the Sino-American imbalance
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본 논문은 1990년대 중반부터 2008년 위기 이전까지 세계경제의 가장 큰 특징들 중 하나였던 미-중 무역불균형 현상의 정치적인 맥락을 해석한다. 해당 현상을 미국패권쇠퇴 혹은 중국패권부상의 징조로 해석하는 일반론에 반하여 구조적 통화권력 개념에 기반 한 본 연구는 그것을 현 시기 국제금융통화체제에 내재된 미국패권의 반증으로 해석한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 2000년 미국 주식시장이 붕괴한 이후 미국과 중국 당국이 각기 어떤 방식으로 경기침체에 대응하였는지 살펴본다. 당시 경기침체가 전면적인 위기로 전화할 가능성에 직면하여 미국은 감세와 군비증강 등 본래의 정책목표를 희생할 필요가 없는 과감한 소비증진정책을 편 반면 중국은 달러와 미국 자산 가치를 뒷받침하는 외환시장 개입을 통해 사실상 정부와 가계의 소비를 억제하고 저축을 증대하는 상반된 정책을 펼쳤다. 위기에 직면하여 미국이 자유롭게 정책을 추구하는 반면 중국은 어쩔 수 없이 그로인한 부정적인 후과에 대응해야만 한 당시의 상황은 거시경제 불균형의 조정 압력을 연기하거나 다른 국가에게 전가할 수 있는 국제통화금융체제에 내제된 미국의 능력, 즉 달러에 기반 한 구조적인 통화권력이 발현된 대표적인 사례라 할 수 있다. 이후 2008년 위기 이전까지 지속적으로 확대된 양국 간 불균형 현상 또한 이와 같은 정치적 맥락 속에서 이루어진 바, 미-중 거시경제 불균형은 미국 패권의 쇠퇴 및 중국 패권의 부상이 아닌 미국 통화패권의 지속을 보여주는 현상으로 해석되어야 하는 것이다.
Abstract
This paper interprets the political context upon which the Sino-American macroeconomic imbalances developed from the mid 1990s until the 2008 global financial crisis. Challenging the general way of viewing the event as a symptom of the declining American hegemony with China rising as an alternative hegemon, this paper argues that it was a proof showing the persistent US’ hegemonic power embedded in the contemporary international financial monetary system. For this purpose, this work analyzes the policies employed by the US and China in the wake of the recession caused by the 2000 stock market breakdown. In response to the possible crisis at the time, the US pursued drastic expansionary policies without renouncing any key policy goals including tax cuts and military build-up, while China, whose wealth and growth depended a lot on the dollar, had no choice but to support the value of the dollar and US assets with domestic consumption further repressed. This was a typical example showing the way in which the US’ structural monetary power, the state’s power to be free from the pressures of adjusting macroeconomic imbalances, is used. As the build-up of the US-China imbalances until the 2008 crisis was also made in this context, the imbalances between them should be interpreted as a symbol of the persistent US monetary hegemony rather than a symptom of hegemonic transition.
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