미중 패권경쟁과 달러 패권의 미래
US-China Hegemonic Competition and the Future of Dollar Hegemony
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본 논문은 미중 패권경쟁이 향후 달러 패권에 기초한 국제통화체제에 미칠 수 있는 영향력에 대한 시론적 분석이다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기가 발생했을 당시에 달러패권체제가 흔들릴 수 있다는 전망이 제기되었지만 달러패권은 2008년 위기를 통해서 오히려 강화되었다. 미국이 2008년 위기 이후에 통화 패권국의 지위를 강화 시킬 수 있었던 중요한 이유 중에 하나는 중국이 달러 패권의 지원자로 기능했기 때문 이다. 2008년 위기 이후 중국이 미국 달러를 지탱해주는 역할을 수행했던 것은 달러 자산의 축적으로 인해 자신들의 자산가치의 하락을 야기하지 않고서는 달러 자산을 매각할 수 없는‘달러의 덫’에 빠져들었기 때문이었다. 하지만 현재 중국의 입장에서 보면 미국 달러 패권이 야기하는 경제적 비용뿐만 아니라 안보적 비용 역시 증가하고 있다. 따라서 향후 중국은 달러 패권이 유지됨으로써 발생하는 비용이 달러의 덫에서 벗어나는 비용을 상회한다고 판단되면 달러 패권을 강화시키는 것이 아니라 약화 시키는 정책을 수행할 수 있다. 이와 같은 상황이 도래하면 1945년 이후 지속된 후 달러 중심의 국제통화체제에 근본적인 변화가 초래될 것이다.
Abstract
This article aims to analyse the impact of US-China hegemonic competition on the US dollar-based international monetary system. When the global financial crisis of 2008 took place, there was an expectation that the dollar hegemony would be undermined. However, the dollar hegemony has been strengthened after the 2008 crisis. In particular, China has been acted as a supporter for the US dollar-based international monetary system because it could not escape from the so-called dollar trap. As the economic and security costs of the dollar hegemony has been increasing, there might be possibility that China would act as a system underminer rather than a system supporter, thereby significantly weakening dollar hegemony and transforming the current international monetary system.
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