Did threat perception shift Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy of alliance: A study of initial years of statehood
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Following their independence, India and Pakistan have long been in a state of hostility due to religious and ethnic issues. Pakistan’s strong perception of threat, stemming from India’s superior comprehensive national strength, compelled it to adopt a diplomatic strategy of alliance. This strategy involved seeking alliances with major powers beyond its region to safeguard national security. Initially, Pakistan allied with the United States, and later, during the Second Indo-Pak War, fostered relations with China. This paper employs a literature research method to construct an analytical framework where threat perception is the independent variable, and alliance choice is the dependent variable. Utilizing the theory of threat balancing for analysis, the study findings revealed that threat perception is the principal factor guiding Pakistan’s choice of allies. Pakistan’s motivation to ally with the United States was to counterbalance the Indian threat, while the United States’ fundamental reason for the alliance was to implement a global strategy against the communist bloc. The interests of the allies were not aligned and contained irreconcilable potential contradictions, forming a structural weakness in the US-Pakistan alliance. During strained US-India relations, the alliance with the United States created a balance of power between India and Pakistan, reducing threat perception of Pakistan. However, after the late 1950s, when the Sino-Indian conflict became the primary dispute in South Asia, the US provided substantial aid to India to counter China. This action not only failed to balance the Indian threat but also widened the power gap between India and Pakistan, intensifying Pakistan’s threat perception of India and leading it to seek cooperation with China proactively. The US inaction during the second Indo-Pak War rendered the US-Pakistan alliance valueless, leading to its subsequent dissolution of post-war.
Abstract
Following their independence, India and Pakistan have long been in a state of hostility due to religious and ethnic issues. Pakistan’s strong perception of threat, stemming from India’s superior comprehensive national strength, compelled it to adopt a diplomatic strategy of alliance. This strategy involved seeking alliances with major powers beyond its region to safeguard national security. Initially, Pakistan allied with the United States, and later, during the Second Indo-Pak War, fostered relations with China. This paper employs a literature research method to construct an analytical framework where threat perception is the independent variable, and alliance choice is the dependent variable. Utilizing the theory of threat balancing for analysis, the study findings revealed that threat perception is the principal factor guiding Pakistan’s choice of allies. Pakistan’s motivation to ally with the United States was to counterbalance the Indian threat, while the United States’ fundamental reason for the alliance was to implement a global strategy against the communist bloc. The interests of the allies were not aligned and contained irreconcilable potential contradictions, forming a structural weakness in the US-Pakistan alliance. During strained US-India relations, the alliance with the United States created a balance of power between India and Pakistan, reducing threat perception of Pakistan. However, after the late 1950s, when the Sino-Indian conflict became the primary dispute in South Asia, the US provided substantial aid to India to counter China. This action not only failed to balance the Indian threat but also widened the power gap between India and Pakistan, intensifying Pakistan’s threat perception of India and leading it to seek cooperation with China proactively. The US inaction during the second Indo-Pak War rendered the US-Pakistan alliance valueless, leading to its subsequent dissolution of post-war.
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