Increasing U.S.–China Strategic Competition: Implications for Pakistan
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Historically, China had been a great power and had maintained the largest economy in the world for quite a long time. It would, therefore, like to regain its lost status. There is consensus among many scholars that China would rise peacefully by adopting the five “principles of peaceful co-existence”, thus, it would take a leading role in the 21st century. It is viewed that the United States is already convinced to a great extent that it might not be able to maintain sole dominance for too long in the backdrop of the rising Chinese economic and military power. Based on an in-depth analysis of the issue, the study concludes that China would avoid clashing with Washington and its allies while protecting its economic interests across the globe. Nevertheless, the Chinese would react if their core interests are threatened by the United States and its allies including India. In order to protect its long-term interest in the region and beyond, China would gradually develop its military including its maritime capabilities to increase its influence beyond China’s periphery. However; it is highly unlikely that in the near future, China would contest the United States and its allies beyond the South China Sea. The study also concludes that in this great ongoing game between the quadrangles of the countries, if India makes a principle decision to stand by the United States in the case of a conflict with China over the Indian Ocean, such a scenario would limit Pakistan’s options to either join China or stay neutral. Either of the two options would pose a serious challenge for Pakistan. A decision to stay outside the Great Powers’ power politics would be even more difficult.
Abstract
Historically, China had been a great power and had maintained the largest economy in the world for quite a long time. It would, therefore, like to regain its lost status. There is consensus among many scholars that China would rise peacefully by adopting the five “principles of peaceful co-existence”, thus, it would take a leading role in the 21st century. It is viewed that the United States is already convinced to a great extent that it might not be able to maintain sole dominance for too long in the backdrop of the rising Chinese economic and military power. Based on an in-depth analysis of the issue, the study concludes that China would avoid clashing with Washington and its allies while protecting its economic interests across the globe. Nevertheless, the Chinese would react if their core interests are threatened by the United States and its allies including India. In order to protect its long-term interest in the region and beyond, China would gradually develop its military including its maritime capabilities to increase its influence beyond China’s periphery. However; it is highly unlikely that in the near future, China would contest the United States and its allies beyond the South China Sea. The study also concludes that in this great ongoing game between the quadrangles of the countries, if India makes a principle decision to stand by the United States in the case of a conflict with China over the Indian Ocean, such a scenario would limit Pakistan’s options to either join China or stay neutral. Either of the two options would pose a serious challenge for Pakistan. A decision to stay outside the Great Powers’ power politics would be even more difficult.
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