조세지출 추계방법론에 따른 지방세 감면의 세수효과 비교와 정책적 시사점

Abstract

Unlike direct fiscal expenditures, the budget for tax expenditures is executed ex-post when economic-agents take actions related to tax payment. The size of budget for a tax expenditure program therefore differs by estimation methods: revenue gain method, revenue forgone method, measuring the difference in realized tax revenues. This paper analyzes the revenue elements which each method captures and derives the relation of them in order to draw up a budget bill in a more accurate way and help in operating the tax expenditure budget system more efficiently. In general, it is derived that the revenue forgone method overestimates the size of tax revenue created by a tax expenditure program than the revenue gain method. The paper also quantitatively estimates the difference in estimates by each method using the various cases of local tax reductions.