미 신행정부 국방전략 전망과 한미동맹에 대한 함의: ‘제3차 상쇄전략’의 수용 및 변용 가능성을 중심으로
The Prospect for Trump Administration’s Defense Strategy and Its Implication for the ROK-US Alliance
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2017년 1월 출범한 트럼프 행정부의 대외정책상의 불확실성은 여전히 높다. 본 연구는 트럼프 행정부의 국방전략 전망을 통해 대외정책 및 동맹전략, 군사태세의 장기적 추세를 전망하고자 하였다. 트럼프 행정부는 이전 행정부들의 대외정책을 비판하여 대대적인 변화를 예고하고 있으나 본 연구는 시간이 흐를수록 대외정책 전반과 국방전략은 이전 정부와 유사성을 띠게 될 것으로 전망하였다. 특히 오바마 행정부 말기에 시작된 ‘제3의 상쇄전략’이 그 명칭과 무관하게 계속 추진될 것이며 그 결과 아태지역 전략과 동맹 전략 역시 과거 행정부들의 정책으로 수렴하게 될 것이다.
Abstract
The Uncertainty of Trump Administration's Foreign Policy is still very high. This article provides the prospect of Trump Administration's defense strategy presenting forecasting of overall long-term trends of foreign and alliance policies. The article argues that ‘the Third Offset strategy’ which began in the latter part of Obama Administration will continue under Trump Administration maybe with another name. With the Third Offset strategy, Trump Administration is expected to adopt more moderate foreign and alliance polices which resemble those of former administrations.
참고문헌 (28)
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