트럼프 대외정책기조와 동아시아 안보지형의 변화 전망: 재균형 정책의 진화를 중심으로
Trump’s Foreign Policy and Prospect for Northeast Asian Security Landscape: An Analysis of Evolving Strategy of Rebalancing
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본 연구는 제45대 미국 대통령으로 당선된 도널드 트럼프의 대외정책 기조를 살펴보고, 오바마 행정부의 대외정책과의 유사점과 차별성에 대해 논의 한다. 축소국면에 놓인 미국의 리더십과 우위의 제고를 위해 오바마 대통령은 다자적 축소 접근법의 맥락에서 국제사회 국가들과의 관계 속에서의 리더 십과 파트너십 제고, 그리고 역외균형전략을 통한 미국의 우위를 도모해 왔다. 즉 이는 미국이 축소국 면에 놓여있더라도 미국의 자유주의적 질서를 유지 시키고자 하는 오바마 대통령의 전략적 목적이 담겨 있었던 반면, 트럼프 당선자는 강력한 군사력에 기반한 일방적 축소의 접근법 차원의 공약들을 제시해 왔으며, 강력한 군사력이 미국의 리더십 제고로 이어질 것이라는 현실주의적 입장에 서있다. 물론 트 럼프 당선자 역시 역외균형전략 차원에서 지역별 전략구상을 언급한 바 있으나, 이는 기존의 지역별 병렬적 세력균형체제 논의와도 차이점을 노정하고 있어 보다 불확실한 안보환경 형성이 예측된다. 제3단계 재균형 정책으로의 진화를 앞둔 지금의 시점에 있어 트럼프 대외정책기조가 재균형정책에 가져올 영향력은 기본적으로 재균형정책이 갖고 있는 미국의 외교, 경제, 군사의 중층적 질서를 약화 및 분리시킬 전망이며, 이러한 재균형정책의 맥락속에 존재하는 동북아시아 안보환경은 더욱 더 불확실성이 확대될 것으로 예측된다.
Abstract
This research explores the foreign policy direction of the 45th President-elect Donald Trump of the United States, and discusses the similarities and differences from that of the Obama administration. Under the retrenchment, President Obama has strived to sustain the US Leadership and dominance through the multilateral retrenchment approach, which maintain US leadership and partnership in a multilateral setting, while elevating US dominance through operating along the offshore balancing strategy. It inherently intends to sustain US liberal order in spite of the American retrenchment. Meanwhile, President-elect Trump’s approach maight be summarized as that of unilateral retrenchment in that it pursues international leadership through strong military capabilities. While such preference is not translated into interventionism, his offshore balancing strategy shows disparity from existing literature on offensive realist’s offshore balancing, which ultimately generates strategic uncertainty in his grand strategy. In addition, it provides the prospect for the changing security landscape in Northeast Asia. Especially given the third phase of rebalancing recently suggested by the United States, this research discusses how Trump’s foreign policy would change the trajectories of evolving rebalancing strategy in the region.
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