미 대선 이후 한미동맹 대응 전략 연구: 트럼프 1기 분석을 통한 2기 전망 및 대응 방향을 중심으로
Prospects for Trump's Second Term Foreign Strategy and Alliance Policy through the Analysis of the First Term: Focused on Implications for South Korea
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초록
본 논문은 트럼프 행정부 1기 대외정책을 분석하고 2기를 전망하며, 한미동맹의 주요 현안에 대한 한국의 대응 전략을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 방위비 분담금, 주한미군 주둔, 전작권 전환, 확장억제, 대북정책, 한미일 협력 등 주요 동맹 현안을 중심으로 트럼프 1기와 2기의 예상 정책을 비교 분석하였다. 트럼프 1기에서의 방위비 분담금 인상 요구, 주한미군 주둔 문제, 전작권 전환, 확장억제, 대북정책, 한미일 협력 등의 동맹 현안을 분석하여 트럼프 2기에서의 정책변화를 예측하고, 이에 대한 국방부의 대응 방안을 제안하였다. 본 논문의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 방위비 분담금 인상 요구는 트럼프 2기에서도지속될 가능성이 크다. 둘째, 주한미군은 중장기적으로 축소될 가능성이 있다. 셋째, 전작권 전환은 조기 추진될 가능성이 크며, 확장억제 역시 북한의 도발에도 불구하고 축소될가능성이 존재한다. 넷째, 대북정책에서는 Top-Down 방식의 협상이 지속될 것으로 보이며, 한미일 협력은 인도-태평양 전략의 일환으로 강화될 것이다. 본 연구는 이러한 예측을바탕으로 국방부의 대응 방안을 제시하였다. 방위비 대신 국방비 증액을 통해 동맹에 기여하는 방안, 일본과 같은 중간 수준의 태세 전환, 전작권 전환은 기존 합의 존중, 대안적 확장억제 방안 추진, 철저한 비핵화를 위한 한미 소통 강화, 인도-태평양 전략 내에서의 한미일협력 강화 및 한국형 격자전략(lattice like) 등이 포함된다. 본 연구는 기본적으로 트럼프 2기 행정부에 대한 예측에 기초하고 있어 분석의 주요 내용에 불확실성이 존재한다. 그러나 본 연구는 트럼프 행정부 등장 시 정책적 대응이 중요한만큼 향후 추가적 연구를 위한 기반이 될 수 있는 사항들을 제시하는데 주안점을 두었다. 추후 연구에서는 트럼프 2기 행정부가 실제로 집행하게 될 정책들을 구체적으로 분석하고, 이를 바탕으로 한미동맹의 각 현안에 대한 더 구체적이고 실질적인 대응 방안을 마련하는것이 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the foreign policy of the Trump administration during its first and second terms and propose response strategies for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense regarding major issues within the U.S.-ROK alliance. Focusing on key alliance concerns such as defense cost-sharing, the stationing of U.S. forces in Korea, the transfer of wartime operational control, extended deterrence, North Korea policy, and trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, this study compares and contrasts the policies of Trump's first and second terms. The analysis covers demands for increased defense cost-sharing, the presence of U.S. forces in Korea, the transfer of wartime operational control, extended deterrence, North Korea policy, and U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation during Trump's first term, and predicts policy changes in the second term. Based on these predictions, the paper proposes strategic responses for the Ministry of National Defense. The key findings of this study are as follows: First, demands for increased defense cost-sharing are likely to continue into Trump's second term. Second, there is a possibility of a gradual reduction in the number of U.S. forces stationed in Korea over the mid to long term. Third, the transfer of wartime operational control is likely to be expedited, and extended deterrence may be reduced despite North Korean provocations. Fourth, a top-down approach to North Korea policy is expected to persist, and U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation will likely be strengthened as part of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Based on these predictions, the study suggests several response strategies for the Ministry of National Defense. These include contributing to the alliance through increased national defense spending instead of higher defense cost-sharing, adopting a mid-level posture similar to that of Japan, respecting existing agreements regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, pursuing alternative extended deterrence measures, enhancing U.S.-ROK communication for thorough denuclearization, and strengthening U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation within the Indo-Pacific strategy. The study also proposes the adoption of a lattice-like strategy specific to South Korea. The methodological limitations of this study include the fact that the Trump administration's policies are merely predicted and do not fully account for variables in the actual policy implementation process. Furthermore, it is challenging to entirely predict policy shifts based on President Trump's personal inclinations and changes in international affairs. Future research should focus on a detailed analysis of the policies actually implemented by the Trump administration in its second term and develop more specific and practical response strategies for each issue within the U.S.-ROK alliance. Additionally, to ensure the long-term development of the alliance, further research should explore ways to enhance cooperation and communication between the allied nations and build a strategic partnership based on mutual trust.
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