소득세 환급액에 대한 가계의 소비반응
The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds
1
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
소득세 환급액은 정기적 소득과 대비되는 일시적 소득의 특성을 가지고 있다. 전통적 소비이론은 일시적 소득은 소비에 영향이 없을 것으로 예측한다. 본 연구는 소득세 환급액에 대한 가계의 소비반응을 살펴봄으로서 이론적 정책적 함의를 도출하려 한다. 이를 위해 재정패널조사 3-5차 년도 자료를 사용하여 균형패널을 구축한 후 확률효과 프로빗 모형으로 추정하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 회귀분석결과 소득세 환급액이 사용용도 및 소비지출용도에서 부적으로 유의하게 나타났다. 반면, 유동성제약여부, 가계재무관련변수, 인구사회학적변수, 그리고 거시경제 상황변수는 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 한계효과 분석결과 소득세 환급액의 규모가 증가할수록 소비지출확률이 체감하는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 본 연구 결과는 소득세 환급액에 대한 소비반응이 심적 회계 이론의 예측과 일치하며, 한국가계의 소비행동을 설명하는데 행동학적 접근이 유용하다는 것을 시사한다. 또한 정책적 측면에서 경기부양을 위한 일시적 재정정책이 가계 소비지출에 영향을 미쳐 효과적인 수단이 될 수 있음을 말해주고 있다.
Abstract
Income tax refunds is temporary income. The purpose of this research is to analyze the response of household consumption to income tax refunds as temporary income. The balanced panel was composed of the National Survey of Tax and Benefit for 3rd-5th wave and analyzed by random effects panel probit model. Research results are as follows;According to the regression analysis, income tax refunds appeared negatively significant to the purposes of use and consumption expenditure, whereas not significant to liquidity constraint, household financial variables, demographic variables, and macroeconomic situation variables. And according to the analysis of marginal effect, the more income tax refunds increase, the more consumption probability decreases. Research result suggests that the consumption response to income tax refunds coincides with the forecast of mental accounting theory and behavioral approach is useful in describing the consumption behavior of Korean households. Further, a temporary fiscal-policy for economic stimulus (e.g. tax rebate) could become an effective policy affecting household consumption.
참고문헌 (35)
- 박종선, "가계 주 소득 원천과 소득 분위에 따른 가계 유형별 심적 회계 분석", 석사, 생활환경복지학과, pp.2013
- 가계소비행태와 유동성 제약-최근의 경제충격을 중심으로-, "설윤", 현대경제연구원, ~ (2009)
- 임주영, "유동성 제약하의 항상소득가설에 대한 연구 : Panel 자료를 이용한 분석", 공공경제, 12(2), pp.153~170 (2007), 한국재정학회
- 차은영, "유동성제약과 항상소득가설 : Micro Data 분석", 경제학연구, 48(1), pp.35~62 (2000)
- 한국조세연구원, "재정패널조사 1-5차년도 조사자료 사용자 안내서", ~ (2013)
- Ando, A., "The"Life-Cycle"Hypothesis of Saving : Aggregate Implications and Tests", American Economic Review, 53(1), pp.55~84 (1963)
- Friedman, M., "A Theory of the Consumption Function" (1957), Princeton University Press
- Arkes, J., "The Psychology of Windfall Gains", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 59, pp.331~347 (1994)
- Bodkin, R., "Windfall Income and consumption", The American Economic Review, 49(4), pp.602~614 (1959)
- Bodkin, R., "Windfall Income and Consumption : Comment", The American Economic Review, 53(3), pp.445~447 (1963)
- Bodkin, R., "Windfall Income and Consumption : Reply", The American Economic Review, 56(3), pp.540~546 (1966)
- Hall, R.E., "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income : Estimate from Panel Data on Households", Econometrica, 50(2), pp.461~481 (1982)
- Hall, R. E., "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis : Theory and Evidence", Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), pp.971~987 (1978)
- Hsiesh, C. T., "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund", The American Economic Review, 93(1), pp.397~405 (2003)
- Kahneman, D., "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica, 47(2), pp.263~292 (1979)
- A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments, "Kaplan, G.", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 17338 (2011)
- Kreinin, M. E., "Windfall Income and Consumption:Additional Evidence", The American Economic Review, 51(3), pp.388~390 (1961)
- Houshold Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001, "Johnson, D. S.", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 10784 (2004)
- Lansberger, M., "Windfall Income and Consumption:Comment", The American Economic Review, 56(3), pp.534~540 (1966)
- Levin, L., "Are assets fungible? Testing the behavioral theory of life-cycle savings", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 36, pp.59~83 (1998)
- Loewenstein, G., "Anomalies : Intertemporal Choice", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(4), pp.181~193 (1989)
- Milkman, K.L., "Mental Accounting and Small Windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71, pp.384~394 (2009)
- Modigliani, F., "Post Keynesian Economics" (1954), Rutgers University Press
- Parker, J. A., "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes", The American Economic Review, 89(4), pp.959~973 (1999)
- Poterba, J. M., "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments", The American Economic Review, 78(2), pp.413~418 (1988)
- Shefrin, H.M, "The Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis", Economic Inquiry, 26, pp.609~643 (1988)
- Houshold Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications, "Sajm, C.R", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 15421 (2009)
- Souleles, N.S, "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds", American Economic Association, 89(4), pp.947~958 (1999)
- Shapiro, M.D, "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates", The American Economic Review, 93(1), pp.381~396 (2003)
- Thaler, R.H, "Anomalies: Saving, Fungibility, and Mental Accounts", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(1), pp.193~205 (1990)
- Wilcox, D. W., "Social Security Benefits, Consumption Expenditure, and the Life Cycle hypothesis", Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), pp.288~304 (1989)
- Income Tax Refunds and the Timing of Consumption Expenditure, "Wilcox, D. W.", Federal Reserve Board of Governors, ~, pp.Working Parer 106 (1990)
- Zeldes, S. P., "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation", Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), pp.305~346 (1989)
- "국가통계포털"[URL]
- "Dictionary.com Unabridged. Retrieved October 28, 2013, from Dictionary"[URL]