소비반응의 비대칭성과 유동성제약
Asymmetry in Consumption Responses and Liquidity Constraint
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본고는 우리나라 국민계정 및 한국노동패널자료를 이용하여 소득변화에 대한 소비반응의 비대칭 여부를 살펴보고 이러한 비대칭성이 유동성제약가설에 의해 설명가능한지를 실증적으로 검토하였다. 분석 결과, 거시 및 가계패널자료 모두에서 소비반응의 비대칭성이 유의하게 나타났다. 즉, 소득 증가시 소비 증가폭보다소득 감소시 소비 감소폭이 더 크고 유의하였다. 소득 대비 금융자산 비중 등 이론적 기준에 따라 패널 표본을 고유동성/저유동성 그룹으로 나누고 소비반응의비대칭 정도를 비교한 결과, 소비의 비대칭성은 유동성제약에 직면할 가능성이높은 그룹, 즉 저유동성 그룹에서 보다 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 또한 Shea(1995a)의모형을 가계패널자료에 확장․적용한 결과, 소비반응 비대칭의 원인으로서 유동성제약가설을 지지하는 결과를 얻었다. 따라서 우리나라 가계소비에는 비대칭성이 존재하며 이러한 비대칭성은 상당부분 가계가 직면하는 유동성제약을 통해 설명할 수 있는 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
Employing Korean aggregate and household panel data, we examine the asymmetry in household’s consumption responses to income changes, and investigates whether the presence of liquidity constraint can explain this asymmetry as predicted by existing theories. Testing the presence of asymmetry in consumption responses, we find that in both aggregate and household panel data, consumption decreases more significantly in response to an income decrease than it increases in response to an income increase of the same magnitude. When we split the households sample into liquidity-constrained and unconstrained sub-groups, the asymmetry in consumption responses is more prominent in the liquidity-constrained group. Applying Shea(1995a) model to household panel data, we find that the sub-group results support the liquidity constraint hypothesis as a convincing explanation for the asymmetric responses of consumption.
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