HtM 계층별 일시소득 충격에 대한 한계소비성향 추정
Examining the Marginal Propensity to Consume in Response to Transitory Income Shocks by the Hand-to-Mouth Households
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초록
본 연구는 일정 기간 동안 자신이 벌어들인 임금을 그대로 소비하는 Hand-to-Mouth(HtM) 계층을대상으로 이들의 일시소득 충격에 대한 한계소비성향을 분석하였다. 보다 구체적으로 본 연구는 우리나라가계금융복지조사 자료를 이용하여 HtM 계층을 유동자산이 부족한 HtM 계층(PHtM), 비유동자산은많으나 유동자산이 부족한 HtM 계층(WHtM), 유동자산이 부족하지 않은 계층(NHtM)으로 세분화하여분석하였다. 분석 결과, WHtM 계층은 우리나라 가계의 30 %에 달하는 비중을 차지하고 있으며, PHtM 계층과함께 일시소득에 대해 20 %대의 높은 수준의 한계소비성향을 가지고 있었다. 또한 WHtM 계층을 별도로구분한 한계소비성향 추정으로 기존의 순자산(NW) 기준에 따른 추정상의 혼동효과를 줄일 수 있었다. 아울러 일시소득 충격의 방향에 따른 한계소비성향의 비대칭성은 주로 부채비율이 낮은 PHtM 계층에서두드러졌으며, 그 방향에 대한 한계소비성향은 음(-)의 일시소득 충격에서 더 크게 나타났다. 이는 가계에대출제약이 있거나 소득 불확실성에 따른 예비적 저축 동기가 있는 때 음(-)의 일시소득 충격에 대해나타나는 높은 한계소비성향의 이론적 예측 결과와 부합하였다.
Abstract
Using data from the Household Finance and Welfare Survey of Korea, we examine the marginal propensity to consume(MPC) in response to transitory income shocks across different tiers of households: PHtM(Poor Hand-to-Mouth), WHtM(Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth), and NHtM(Non Hand-to-Mouth). One of our findings is that the WHtM households, which account for 30% of Korean households, exhibit a high level of MPC in the 20% range in response to transitory income, with the PHtM. Furthermore, estimating the MPC specifically for the WHtM tier helps reduce the confounding effects of estimation based on the traditional net worth(NW) criterion. Additionally, the asymmetry in MPC in response to the direction of transitory income shocks is notably pronounced among the PHtM households with low debt ratios, with a greater MPC observed in response to negative transitory income shocks. This is consistent with the theoretical prediction of a higher MPC in response to negative transitory income shocks, which is evident among households facing borrowing constraints or motivated by precautionary savings due to income uncertainty.
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