몽골의 체제전환과 북한에 주는 시사점

Abstract

Mongolia is the only state in Asia where democracy has been successfully consolidated following a transition from the socialist system. Under the influence of the Soviet Union, Mongolia became the second socialist state in the world in 1924, and introduced democracy and the market economy in 1990 to become a “double transition” state undergoing post-socialist transition in both its political and the economic system. After its transition, Mongolia’s democracy has continually advanced without backsliding into authoritarianism. There have not been a military coup or attempts at subversion by forces from the former ruling-communist party. Also, after the transition of both its political and economic systems, Mongolia has shown openness to support from the international community in making progress with respect to economic growth. Furthermore, Mongolia has maintained independence through diplomacy that has sought balance between Russia and China. The distinct features of Mongolia’s post-socialist transition are that it was not a democracy with civil society before the introduction of the communist party-state, and that its economy had not developed to a point favourable to democratization after socialism. Despite such weak prerequisites for successful democratization, Mongolia has abolished the communist party dictatorship through constitutional reform in 1990, and introduced market economy in 1991 by implementing price liberalization. By 1992, Mongolia had enacted a new constitution that sought to completely end all structures and institutions of the old socialist system. Such features of Mongolian transition have important implications for North Korea. First, the foundations upon which democratization was to occur at the time of Mongolia’s post-socialist transition were inadequate. After transition however, its democracy has not only successfully settled but is now in the process of being consolidated. From Mongolia’s case, it is possible to infer that post-socialist transition does not necessarily occur only when theoretically presumed conditions are satisfied. Successful transition can occur even when such prerequisites for democratization are not fulfilled. Second, although the possibility of change in the North Korean regime is currently low, Mongolia’s system transition can offer meaningful lessons for North Korea. If a systemic transition is attempted through a top-down process of change like in the case of Mongolia, it is possible to expect a peaceful and stable post-socialist transition for North Korea too. Also, the groundwork for inter-Korean integration free from the conflicting interests of neighboring states with respect to unification can be put in place. As such, Mongolia’s transition case offers a possible example for North Korea’s transition, and it is in this context that this paper explores Mongolia’s transition and democratization process. This paper first identifies the features of Mongolian democratization and transition, and then analyzes the key factors for its democratic progress after transition to draw implications for the means and direction of North Korea’s system transition in the future.