North Korea's System Transition: Conditions, Possibilities, and Countermeasures
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper aims to outline the requirements for the possible system transition in North Korea, the possibility and direction of the system transition. In addition, as North Korea enters a situation where it possesses nuclear weapons, it is also discussing whether the current North Korean system will survive for the time being. Through this, the collapse of the North Korean system is likely to take place from the inside. The transition is possible when the two pillars of the existing system, leader absolutism and the collapse of the Worker's Party of Korea's dictatorship, and the possibility that the transition after the collapse of the existing system could be different types from those in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. First of all, North Korea's nuclear possession situation will be maintained regardless of regime change, so South Korea should take measures to control or eliminate nuclear weapons in cooperation with the international community, including the United States, in the event of a contingency in North Korea. In addition, North Korea should start by realizing that its neighbor, South Korea, can provide unlimited support for the transition. However, the success of the transition is only possible if it is actively carried out with its own will. Compare to other countries experiences, North Korea will be in a position to start from scratch with virtually no civil society. It should also be premised that North Korea's transition to the regime takes a long time and will likely go through a rough process. Therefore, South Korea should create opportunities to educate North Koreans and elites about democratic citizenship, centering on civil society, and prepare for North Korea to overcome the crisis of regime change on its own. At the same time, North Korea's readiness for regime change is essential. However, efforts to strengthen solidarity within South Korea are urgently needed, which requires strengthening security education and firmly establishing social order so that members of our society comply with constitutional values.
Abstract
This paper aims to outline the requirements for the possible system transition in North Korea, the possibility and direction of the system transition. In addition, as North Korea enters a situation where it possesses nuclear weapons, it is also discussing whether the current North Korean system will survive for the time being. Through this, the collapse of the North Korean system is likely to take place from the inside. The transition is possible when the two pillars of the existing system, leader absolutism and the collapse of the Worker's Party of Korea's dictatorship, and the possibility that the transition after the collapse of the existing system could be different types from those in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. First of all, North Korea's nuclear possession situation will be maintained regardless of regime change, so South Korea should take measures to control or eliminate nuclear weapons in cooperation with the international community, including the United States, in the event of a contingency in North Korea. In addition, North Korea should start by realizing that its neighbor, South Korea, can provide unlimited support for the transition. However, the success of the transition is only possible if it is actively carried out with its own will. Compare to other countries experiences, North Korea will be in a position to start from scratch with virtually no civil society. It should also be premised that North Korea's transition to the regime takes a long time and will likely go through a rough process. Therefore, South Korea should create opportunities to educate North Koreans and elites about democratic citizenship, centering on civil society, and prepare for North Korea to overcome the crisis of regime change on its own. At the same time, North Korea's readiness for regime change is essential. However, efforts to strengthen solidarity within South Korea are urgently needed, which requires strengthening security education and firmly establishing social order so that members of our society comply with constitutional values.
참고문헌 (39)
- Strategic Tasks for Transitioning to the North Korean System and Korea's Cooperation Strategy for Four Northeast Asian Countries, "Bae, Jung-ho", Unification Research Institute, ~ (2009)
- Chung, Youngchul, "Social Control and Changes in Organizational Life: North Korean Social Change since the 1990s" (2005), Korean Broadcasting
- 한윤기, "북핵문제 해결을 위한 “급변사태” 활용", 전략연구, 25(1), pp.104~142 (2018), (사) 한국전략문제연구소
- Hwang, Byung-Duck, "Development and Unification of the Korean Peninsula after the socialist system transition (Korean)" (2011), Neulbom Plus
- Jeong, Han-gu, "Will North Korea collapse? Experience of socialist countries and the future of North Korea (Korean)", Sejong Policy Review, 5(2) (2009)
- 정지웅, "북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구", 통일과 평화, 9(1), pp.162~194 (2017), 통일평화연구원[DOI]
- Kim, Younkyoo, "20 Years of Transition to the post-socialist system" (2010), Nonhyung
- 이근관, "북한위기상황 시 주변국의 개입가능성과 그 국제법적 논리에 대한 검토", 서울국제법연구, 18(2), pp.31~63 (2011), 서울국제법연구원
- Lee, Sang-Hwan, "Types and Characteristics of System Transformation in Eastern European Countries" (2008), Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Press
- 이승열, "북한 ‘수령체제’의 변화와 ‘3대 세습’의 구조적 한계", 북한연구학회보, 13(1), pp.109~137 (2009), 북한연구학회
- 이우영, "북한의 생활총화 형성과정 연구", 북한연구학회보, 12(1), pp.121~145 (2008), 북한연구학회
- 박창희, "북한급변사태와 중국의 군사개입 전망", 국가전략, 16(1), pp.33~60 (2010), 세종연구소
- Park, Hwee Rha, "Strict assessment of North Korea's nuclear capabilities and concerted preparation by the government, military, and people (Korean)", Hansun Foundation, Hansun issue & Focus, (8) (2023)
- Park, Hwee Rhak, "North Korea's nuclear blackmail or nuclear attack on the South begins (Korean)", Dailian, ~ (2022)
- Rhee, Ho-jae, "The World of Nuclear and Korean Nuclear Policy: The Role of Nuclear Power in the International Politics" (1987), Bubmansa
- 노병렬, "국제사회의 핵통제사례를 통해 본 북핵문제 해결방안: ‘통제된 핵확산’의 필요성", 국가전략, 12(3), pp.103~136 (2006), 세종연구소
- Sohn, Kwang-ju, "Kim Jong-un will collapse only when he breaks down the absolute ideology of the recipient (Korean)", The Liberty Daily, ~ (2023)
- A Comparative Study on the Reform and Opening of the Socialist System (Korean), "Suh, Jae Jean", National Unification Research Institute, ~ (1993)
- Dear Comrade Kim, "Jong-il's Literature Collection (Korean)" (1992), Joseon Rodongdang Publishing House
- Bennett, Bruce W., "Alternative Paths to Korean Unification" (2018)
- Bennett, Bruce W., "Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse" (2013), RAND Corporation
- Beyme, Klaus von, "De-socialism and System Transition(Korean)" (2000), Sogang University Press
- Brezezinski, Zbigniew, "The Great Transformation", The National Interest, 33(3) (1993)
- Brezezinski, Zbigniew, "The Grand Failure : The Birth and Death of Communism in the Twentieth Century" (1989), Charles Scribner's Sons
- Cha, Victor, "The Impossible State : North Korea, Past and Future" (2012), Harper Collins books
- Hankiss, Elemer, "Upheaval against the Plan" (1991), Berg
- Ignatius, David, "North Korea and the price of patience", The Washington Post, ~ (2013)
- Janos, Andrew C., "Continuity and Changes in Eastern Europe: Strategies of Post-Communist Politics", East European Politics and Societies, 8(1) (1993)
- Kopstein, Jeffrey S., "Geographic Diffusion and the Transformation of the Postcommunist World", World Politics, 53(10) (2000)
- Korbonski, Andrzej, "From Leninism to Freedom: The Challenges of Democratization" (1992), Westview Press
- Kornai, Janos, "The Socialist System : The Political Economy of Communism" (1992), Princeton University Press
- McFaul, Michael, "The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship : Noncooperative Transitions in the Post Communist world", World Politics, 54(1) (2002)
- Rankov, Andrei, "The Fall of the Kim Jong Il Administration and the Emergency Exit of North Korean Officials", Daily NK, ~ (2006)
- Scalapino, Robert A., "The Last Leninists: The Uncertain Future of Asia's Communists States" (1992), The Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Scobell, Andrew, "Protecting Pyoungyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime" (2008), Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
- "Chosun Ilbo", ~ (2012)
- "JoongAng Ilbo", ~ (2013)
- "Rodong Newspaper", ~ (1998)