청산옵션 선택가설과 조건부 보수주의가 비대칭적이익지속성에 미치는 효과
The Effect of Liquidation Option and Conditional Conservatism on Asymmetric Earnings Persistence
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Hayn(1995)의 청산옵션 선택가설과 Basu(1997)의 조건부 보수주의는 회계정보의 비대칭적 정보가치가 존재하다는 동일한 연구 결과를 보고하고 있지만, 비대칭성이 발생하는 원인에 대하여 서로다른 견해를 주장하고 있다. 후속연구들에서도 회계정보의 비대칭성에 대하여 두 가설이 상호배타적인 경쟁가설로 인식되고 있지만, 현재까지 이익과 손실의 비대칭적 정보가치에 대한 두 가설의관계성을 실증한 연구는 보고되지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 청산옵션 선택가설과 조건부 보수주의가 이익과 손실의 비대칭적 이익지속성에 미치는 효과를 분석하고 두 가설의 통합 모형을 이용하여 이익지속성에 대한 두 가설의 관련성을 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 2010년부터 2015년까지 6개년 동안 비금융 상장기업의 6,402건의 기업-년도 자료를 대상으로 청산옵션 선택가설과 조건부 보수주의의 효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 청산옵션 선택가설과 조건부 보수주의는 비대칭적인 이익지속성을 유발하는 요인임을 확인하였으며, 두가설은 이익지속성의 비대칭성에 대한 상호보완적인 요인임을 확인하였다
Abstract
The literatures on liquidation option hypothesis and conditional conservatism report the asymmetric informativeness of profit and loss, but there is a considerable difference of perception about the cause of this asymmetry. The basic view of the liquidation option hypothesis is that the loss information is less useful in predicting future earnings and future cash flows due to the liquidation option. On the other hand, from the view of conditional conservatism, conservatism reduces the earnings persistence of loss firm as the bad news of the current period is promptly reflected in the current earnings and it results in earnings reversion in next period, while it increases the earnings persistence of profit firms as the good news is reflected in earnings over the several future periods. As a result, it incurs the asymmetric persistence of earnings. Under condition conservatism, the bad news of the current period is immediately reflected in the earnings of the current period, while the good news of the current period is gradually reflected in earnings over the future period, and thereby, it results in an asymmetric timeliness(an asymmetric value relevance). Most previous studies have recognized that the two hypotheses are mutually exclusive hypotheses, but there is no empirical research that provides substantial evidences by investigating the role of two hypotheses on asymmetric informativeness. This study examines the effect of the liquidation option hypothesis and conditional conservatism on the asymmetric persistence of earnings, and the role of two hypotheses on the asymmetric persistence. For this purpose, 6,402 firm-year data of non-financial listed companies from 2010 to 2015 are collected, and analyzed the effect of liquidation option hypothesis and conditional conservatism. on the asymmetric persistence. As a result of analysis, it is found that conditional conservatism and liquidation option hypothesis are factors that are capable of explaining the asymmetry persistence, and two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive competitive hypothesis, but complementary.
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