복지국가의 주택소유와 공공지출, 주택소유율의 변동
The home ownership, public expenditure and change of home ownership rate
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본 연구는 케메니와 캐슬즈 등이 주장한 복지와 공공지출 간 상쇄(역)관계(trade-off) 가설이 현재에도 유효한지를 확인하고, 최근 주택소유율이 가장 크게 변화하고 있는 사민주의 국가들과 반대로 가장 안정된 모습을 보여주는 남부유럽 국가들을 대상으로 주택소유율의 변화와 안정 요인을 분석하였다. 연구결과, 첫째, 자료수집이 가능했던 2014년을 기준으로 보았을 때 주택소유와 공공지출 간 상쇄관계는 자유주의 레짐과 보수주의 레짐에서만 확인되었다. 둘째, 사민주의 국가들은 예상외로 주택담보대출이 크게 증가했으며 주택의 상품화 경향을 보여주었으나 남부유럽 레짐의 경우에는 낮은 주택담보대출과 비교적 온전한 주택소유를 유지하고 있어 前상품화 경향을 보여주었다. 셋째, 사민주의 레짐은 신규주택과 공공임대주택 건설투자 축소, 주택소유에 친화적인 조세와 관대한 대출정책 등으로 주택수요의 증가와 주택가격의 폭등을 유발하였으나 남부유럽 레짐은 풍부한 주택재고, 대가족 제도, 친인척 중심의 직접 건축 및 공급 방식, 가족 간 주택의 상속과 이전(증여) 덕분에 주택수요와 가격의 안정을 유지하고 있었다. 주택소유와 복지의 선후관계는 아직 분명하지만, 부채를 통해 주택소유를 유도하는 것은 복지 대체제로서 주택의 기능적 유용성 여부를 떠나 장기적으로 합리적 대안이 될 수 없을 것이다.
Abstract
The study checked whether the trade-off relationship between the home ownerhip and welfare by Kemeny and Castles was still valid in four welfare regimes, and analysed the factors of change and stability on rate of home ownership between social democratic states and southern european states. Based on the results of the study, the relationship between housing ownership and public expenditure was confirmed only in the liberal welfare regime and in the conservative welfare regime, as evidenced by the 2014 data collection. Second, social democratic states have dramatically increased housing mortgage loans and showed signs of housing commodification but southern european states have showed pre commodification of housing, maintained comparatively whole home ownership and low mortgage loans. Third, social democratic states has resulted in a rise in housing demand and housing prices, through reduced new housing and social rented housing construction, home ownership friendly taxation and generous lending policies, but southern european states have maintained a stable housing demand and housing prices thanks to the rich housing stocks, extended family, self provision and self promotion by close relatives, and intergenerational inheritance and transfers of housing. Although sequence of the equity ownership and welfare are still unclear, it is not a rational alternatives to induce housing ownership through large mortgage loans.
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