틈새정당으로서 독일 대안당의 성공: 메귀드의 PSO이론을 토대로
Success of the German Radical Right AfD as a Niche Party: Based on Meguid’s PSO Theory
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본 연구는 독일의 극우 정당인 대안당의 놀라운 성공을 정당경쟁의 관점에서 규명해 보려는 시도이다. 2013년 창당한 대안당은 상당히 안정적인 독일의 정당체제에서 기민련·기사련의 우측을 비집고 들어와 5년 만에 독일 의회정치의 주요 행위자로 자리 잡았다. 물론 이 성공은 이 시기에 발생한 난민위기에 기인한 바가 크다. 하지만 이민·난민 이슈가 이전에 부각된 적이 있었음에도 2010년대 중반에서야 반이민･반난민을 내세운 소수정당이 확고한 성공을 거둘 수 있었던 이유를 설명하려면 정당경쟁의 내부를 들여다 볼 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 주류정당들의 대응 전략이 틈새정당(niche party)의 성공에 결정적으로 작용한다고 본 메귀드(Bonnie M. Meguid)의 PSO이론을 분석틀로 차용한다. 본 연구는 PSO이론이 강조하는 입장/위치(position), 중요성(salience), 소유권(ownership)의 세 측면에서 이민･난민 이슈를 둘러싼 정당경쟁을 살핀 후 다음과 같이 주장한다. 첫째, 주류정당들은 난민위기 이후 고조된 이민･난민 이슈의 중요성 때문에 사실상 무시전략을 선택할 수 없었고, 이들의 적극적인 움직임으로 인해 이슈 중요성은 더욱 높아졌다. 둘째, 기민련･기사련은 콜 시대 이후의 지속적인 좌경화와 유입 이상의 지지자 이탈에 대한 우려 때문에 대안당의 약진에도 불구하고 적극적인 수용전략을 취하지 않았다. 셋째, 그 결과 이민･난민 이슈의 소유권이 기민련･기사련에서 대안당으로 이전되었다.
Abstract
This article aims to examine the stunning rise of the German radical right party Alternative für Deutschland(AfD) from the perspective of party competition. This party, which was formed in 2013, has occupied the political space to the right of the center-right CDU/CSU and has already become a considerable political force in parliamentary politics. There is no doubt that this success is largely attributable to the refugee crisis in the mid-2010s. However, given that it is the only factor in their success, it does not explain why an anti-immigration/refugee party is successful in Germany only at this time rather than previously, when immigration/refugee issues were salient. Party competition must also be considered. To take this into account, this article, based on Meguid’s PSO theory that the strategic behavior of mainstream parties plays a critical role in the electoral success of niche parties, analyses party competition on immigration/refugee issues on three aspects: position, salience, and ownership. Its main arguments are as follows: First, the issue salience increased by the refugee crisis made it impossible for the German mainstream parties to choose to dismiss the immigration/refugee issue, and their active behaviors made the issues more salient. Second, the center-right CDU/CSU did not employ an accommodative strategy to move toward the position of the radical right competitor owing to its consistent shift to the left in the post-Kohl era and the risk of losing old supporters. Third, as a consequence, the ownership of the immigration/refugee issue was transferred from the CDU/CSU to the AfD.
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