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대형사고 예측을 위한 잠복성 진단기법에 관한 연구

A Study on the Latent Risk Diagnostic Method for Anticipating Large-scale Accidents

김성수|김재한|김유나|이건우
(사)위기관리이론과실천 (Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis)|2024.06|Crisisonomy|제20권 제6호|pp. 1-22|DOI 10.14251/crisisonomy.2024.20.6.1

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참고문헌

키워드

재난 및 안전관리잠복성 진단기법안전환경변화스위스 치즈 이론하인리히 법칙disaster and safety managementlatent risk diagnostic methodsafety environment changesSwiss cheese modelHeinrich’s law

초록

우리나라는 신기술 개발, 사회구조변화, 자연환경 등의 안전환경이 변화됨에 따라 소규모로 발생하던사고들이 범국가적 대응이 필요한 대형사고로 확대되고 있다. 안전환경변화는 대형사고 발생에 많은영향을 미치고 있어 이에 대한 잠복된 위험요인을 파악하여 예방대책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 안전환경변화 흐름에 따른 대형사고의 잠복성 위험요인을 파악하기 위한 기초적인 연구로 잠복성진단기법을 제안하고자 한다. 이를 위해 이론 및 법·제도 체계를 기반으로 다층적 잠복성 위험요인4가지를 도출하였고 이에 대한 개념을 정립하고 진단 모형을 제안하였다. 제시된 진단기법의 활용 가능성을 확인하기 위해 과거에 발생했던 대형사고 사례에 적용하였다. 진단 결과, 대형사고 사례들이 발생하기 전 본 연구에서 제안한 잠복된 위험요인들이 존재함을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과를 기반으로제안된 잠복성 진단기법은 대형사고가 범국가적 대응이 필요한 재난까지 확대되지 않도록 사전에 잠복된 위험요인을 파악하여 사고를 예측하는 데 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

Abstract

As Korea's safety environment changes due to the development of new technologies, social structural changes, and the natural environment, accidents are expanding into large-scale accidents that require a national response. Safety environment changes have a significant impact on the occurrence of large-scale accidents, it is necessary to identify latent risk factors. In this study, we propose a latent risk diagnosis method as a basic research for anticipating large-scale accidents. For this purpose, we derived four multi-layered latent risk factors based on theories and legal and institutional frameworks. Then we defined the concept of latent risk factors and proposed a diagnostic model. To verify the feasibility of the proposed diagnostic method, it was applied to large-scale accidents that occurred in the past. As a results, it confirmed the existence of the latent risk factors of the accidents. Diagnostic method is expected to be utilized to anticipate large-scale accidents by identifying latent risk factors in advance.

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