논문KCI 등재
저 빈도 대형 사고의 예측기법에 관한 연구
Forecasting low-probability high-risk accidents
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
주제분류산업공학
초록
Abstract
We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts of certain well-defined subsets of accident sequences. We focus on the analysis of the shared branch parameters, which may frequently often in the real accident initiation and propagation to more severe accident. We also suggest the way to utilize different levels of accident data to forecast low-probability high-risk accidents.
참고문헌 (10)
- Aitchison, "Statistical Prediction Analysis" (1975), Cambridge University Press
- and Holland, "Risk Assessment Technology for the Evaluation of Tritium Accident Mitigation", pp.539~543 (1983)
- Holdren, "Exploiting the Competitive Potential of Magnetic Fusion Energy The Interaction of Economics with Safet and Environmental Characteristics", pp.7~56 (1988)
- Jun, "A Bayesian approach to prediction of system failure rates by cirticalities under event trees", pp.623~628 (1999)
- Khan, "A New Methodology for Safety Management Based on Feedback from Credible Accident-Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis System", 87(1), pp.23~36 (2002)
- U, "Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research", pp.1~1150 3 (1987)
- "Implication of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fusion Decision Making", pp.31~48 (1986)
- Rasmussen, "Method of Hazard Analysis and Nuclear Safety Engineering Annals New York Academy of Science", pp.20~36 (1981)
- Yang, "Approximation Method in Bayesian Prediction of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents", pp.135~147 (1990)
- Yang, "Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence Diagrams", 29(1), pp.72~75 (2006)
관련 논문AI추천
대형사고 예측을 위한 잠복성 진단기법에 관한 연구김성수, 김유나, 김재한, 이건우(사)위기관리이론과실천 · Crisisonomy2024 · 제20권 제6호선박충돌사고 위험성 제어방안에 관한 연구고재용, 양원재대한조선학회 · 대한조선학회 논문집2004 · 제41권 제3호사고 위험성을 고려한 운행중지 결정 모형양희중, 오세호, 이근부한국산업경영시스템학회 · 한국산업경영시스템학회지2004 · 제27권 제4호고속도로 교통사고 주 원인의 영향요인에 관한 연구정철우경찰대학 · 경찰학연구2007 · 제7권 제1호A Methodology for Risk Analysis on Ship Accidents at Port Area김동진, 김상열한국해운물류학회 · 해운물류연구2008 · 제59호안전분위기와 산업재해와의 관계에 대한 연구안관영한국산업경영시스템학회 · 한국산업경영시스템학회지2004 · 제27권 제1호