한중무역 30년의 변화와 시사점－무역구조와 GVC 분석－

Abstract

This paper analyzed the changes and implications of 30 years of Korea-China trade after diplomatic relations between Korea and China. First, over the 30 years from 1992 to 2021, the volume of Korea-China trade increased by about 47 times, and China’s share of Korea export increased significantly from 3.52% in 1992 to 25.28% in 2021. Korea-China trade quickly changed from simple light industry to high-value items such as semiconductors and displays and converted to semiconductor intra-industry trade. Second, Korea and China have developed into a win-win structure for 30 years, but in the future, the structure is highly likely to change due to changes in the Chinese government’s strategy and trade environment. The growing dependence on Chinese exports, intra-industry trade centered on the semiconductor industry, and the limited structure of intermediate goods trade are signaling many structural changes in Korea-China trade in the future. Third, according to the GVC analysis, the proportion of Korea and China increased in the proportion of added value by country. In addition, as the global value chain (GVC) linkage gradually decreases, the production and consumption of final goods in China are gradually increasing. The same result was found in China’s export analysis to Korea, and Chinese exports to Korea are converting to the form of final production and consumption. The implications of this paper are as follows. First, during the 30 years of Korea-China trade, they grew together in a win-win structure, but in the future, they are likely to face a major change from the past. Second, as Korea-China trade enters a new turning point, an institutional basis for creating a free trade and investment environment is important, and negotiations on services and investments of the Korea-China FTA should be promoted in line with new changes. Third, Korea-China trade will be reorganized around the semiconductor industry in the future, and Korea’s economic security strategy is very important as it expands to a global multilateral problem, not a bilateral problem.