장성택 처형 이후 북한의 대남정책

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of Jang Song Thaek's execution on North Korean regime with particular attention paid to its South Korea policy. The purge of the second most powerful man, Jang Song Thaek followed by termination of Choe Ryong Hae from his position as the Director of the Korean People's Army(KPA) General Political Bureau will be closely examined to gauge how these changes will influence domestic politics and South Korea policy of North Korea. In addition, this paper will attempt to suggest the future direction and appropriate response to North Korea's new South Korea policy after Jang Song Thaek's execution. Fundamentally, North Korea's South Korea policy is based on the Juche ideology, “revolutionization of South Korean society,” and the “Three-Point Charter for National Reunification” consisting of notions of “Three Principles of National Reunification,” the “Plan of Establishing the Democratic Federal Republic of Koryo,” and the “Ten Point Program of the Great Unity of the Whole Nation.” With such underlying principles, North Korea's policy toward the South consisted of both change and continuity. However, Kim Jong Un's South Korea policy is not known to possess originality or uniqueness, and deemed not much different from his predecessors, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il's eras. Similarly, no remarkable change in inter-Korean relations can be observed despite the recent leadership changes with the launch of Kim Jong Un regime and new government in South Korea. During the period when North Korean system was unstable, North Korea heightened military tensions on the Korean peninsula. In actuality, North Korea attempted to minimize the impact of Jang's execution on the regime by taking a softer approach toward the South. Recently, however, North Korea's threat toward the South is escalating more than ever. Thus, the association between the changes in domestic trends and its South Korea policy cannot be disregarded. Despite the fact the recent purge of Jang and termination of Choe is not likely to cause substantial and direct impact on North-South relations or its South Korea policy, but the change in the power structure inside North Korea can become an impeding factor for North Korea to adopt an affirmative policy toward South Korea. After the execution of Jang Song Thaek, North Korea is likely to minimize the impact of Jang's execution on the system and will attempt to create a stable environment through minimization of South Korea's intervention and involvement in North Korean matters, which is different from its hard- or soft-line policies toward the South. In fact, this approach may be a strategy to make South to become more anxious. This change in attitude could be attributed to the realization that hardline policy has imposed more burden and isolation on the regime and improving inter-Korean relations cannot be discounted as it influences relations with other neighboring countries including China, Japan, and the United States. South Korean government is taking a cautious stance toward North Korea's South Korea policy. In the past, North Korea has displayed mixed reactions of switching back and forth between dialogues and provocations. Thus, Seoul is somewhat more circumspect on North Korea's policy toward the South from early this year since Jang Song Thaek's purge.