북한의 대남 주도권 확보와 대남전략 행태

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze strategies of North Korea to South Korea, and its determinants under Lee Myung-bak’s government. The hypotheses of this paper are as follows: (1) Strategies of North Korea to South Korea have certain pattern which can be classified as strategy of confrontation, dialogue, double-faced and wait-and-see. (2) If an objective of North Korea to South Korea -“Communization unification in the Korean Peninsula”- remains unchanged, the Strategies of North Korea to South Korea remain unchanged. (3) The determinants of strategies of North Korea to South Korea are to secure initiative toward South Korea, and there are strong and moderate methods. In order to verify the hypotheses, this paper breaks the strategies of North Korea toward South Korea into four patterns, and applies these to Lee’s government. As a result, the following conclusions are derived: (1) If the strategies of North Korea to South Korea satisfy certain condition and situation, the strategies repeat among four patterns. (2) The objective of North Korea to South Korea-“the Communization unification in the Korean Peninsula”- seems to remain unchanged until now and according to the objective of North Korea, it is verified that the strategies repeat the same pattern. (3) It was verified that the determinant of North’s strategy to South Korea is to have securing of initiative toward South. In this sense, recently, provocation of North Korea is an extreme form of the confrontation strategy and how long this situation will last is unpredictable. However, as being based on the hypotheses, it can be predictable that the strategies of North Korea will follow specific patterns. If North Korea concentrates on their internal affairs or NK-US relation, they will execute the wait-and-see strategy. If they intend to cover up international criticism, they will execute the dialogue strategy. If they need to consolidate bargaining power against South Korea, they will execute the confrontation strategy. Consequently, Park Geun-hye’s government should prepare corresponding measures against the strategies of North Korea to South Korea.