이명박 정부 출범이후 김정일 정권의 대남 전략전술 - 실태와 특징 -

Abstract

This paper is focused on the analysis of the North’s strategies and tactics toward South Korea since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration. The results of the research are as follows. First, North Korea makes proper use of the two strategies, the peaceful and non-peaceful ways, under the strategies of socialistic revolution and construction in the entire Korean peninsula. North Korea adopts the peaceful offensive such as dialogues, contacts, exchanges, and cooperations with South Korea under the united front strategies of the peaceful offensive, on the other hand, North use the nonpeaceful offensive like reproach, slander, threat as well as provocation by force. Second, North Korea repeatedly makes use of the combined strategies of the peaceful and non-peaceful offensive since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration. This kinds of repetition in North’s behaviors are based on the unchanged strategies toward South Korea. Especially, the characteristics of the North’s strategies toward South since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration has changed. The North’s strategies toward South has reversed from the aggressive peaceful offensive and the passive non-peaceful offensive during the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s tenure to the aggressive non-peaceful offensive and the passive peaceful offensive. Third, the reasons of the North’s strategy shift are manifolded. Domestically,North Korea tried to tighten the control of people and to justify the Kim Jong-un’s hereditary succession. Internationally, they needed to draw attention of the international societies(specially United Nations) and the countries involved in the six party talk(specially the United States). Inter-Korean relations, North Korea tried to put pressure on South in order to accept the North’s intentions by maximizing the split of public opinion in the South and by threatening of war. In conclusion, South Korean government should prepare the countermeasures:improving the crisis management systems, reorganizing the governmental organizations and human networks, strengthening the diplomatic channels toward China and Russia,new strategies for effective control of North Korea, enlarged supports for the related departments of North Korean Studies in the universities.