우리나라 6개 광역권간의 생산‧고용‧물가간 전이효과 분석: 베이지안 GVAR모형을 중심으로
GVAR Analysis on 6 Korean Broad Regions – Bayesian Cointegration Approach
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생산, 실업, 및 물가 등 세 변수간 관계에 대해 국가 경제 단위로는 연구가 상당히 축적된 데 비해 국가 내의 지역들을 대상으로 한 연구는 많지 않다. 본고에서는 베이지안 공적분 추정기법을 활용한 GVAR (Global Vector Autoregressive) 모형을 이용하여 지역 수준에서 생산, 실업(고용) 및 물가 등 3개 변수 간에 어떠한 영향을 주고받는지를 분석하였다. 우리나라의 6개 권역을 대상으로 한 GVAR모형의 충격반응분석에 의하면, 첫째, 권역을 막론하고 GRDP (Gross Regional Domenstic Product)에 정()의 충격이 발생하면 충격이 발생한 해당 지역의 GRDP 반응이 가장 컸으며 둘째, 정()의 GRDP 충격에 대해 고용률의 반응은 모든 권역에서 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 정의 고용률 충격에 대해 GRDP는 항상 정()의 반응을 나타내는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과는 GRDP 충격의 효과가 주로 충격발생 지역 내에 국한하여 나타나며 타지역으로 전파되는 전이효과는 제한적이고, 지역 수준에서는 생산이 증가하더라도 고용률이 상승하지 않을 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 이러한 결과는 고용 증대 정책은 생산물 시장을 활성화하는 간접적인 방식보다는 직접적으로 노동시장을 활성화하는 방식으로 시행될 필요가 있음을 의미한다.
Abstract
Understanding the relationships between output, unemployment, and price level has been one of most central interests to policy makers. There are many analysis on the relationships among 3 variables at the national level, however, the analysis at the regional level is relatively rare, especially in Korea. This paper investigates the relationships among 3 variables via GVAR model with Bayesian cointegration estimation. The impulse response analysis on 6 Korean broad regions shows; First, the responses of GRDPs of 6 regions to GRDPs shocks are all significant and the response of GRDP of region which originated GRDP shock is the largest among responses of GRDPs of regions. Second, the responses of employment rates of 6 regions to regional employment shocks are not significant in all regions. Third the responses of GRDPs of 6 regions to regional employment shocks are positive in all regions. These results implies that policies to boost employments should focus on stimulating labor market directly rather on stimulating output market.
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