유형별 유가충격이 국내 산업에 미치는 효과 분석
Understanding the Effects of Different Types of Oil Shocks on Korean Manufacturing Industry
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본 연구는 SVAR 모형을 이용하여 국내 산업생산 활동에 미치는 유형별 유가충격의 역할 및 영향을 추정하였다. 이를 위해 유가충격을 공급교란, 수요교란 그리고 투기적 수요교란에 의한 충격으로 분류한 후, 부호제약(sign restrictions)에 의해 이들 충격들을 식별하였다. 추정결과, 공급교란충격의 부정적 효과는 에너지 집약도가 높은 산업에서 유가충격이 갖는 공급충격의 특성에 기인하여 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 수요교란충격의 부정적 효과는 주로 수출비중이 높은 산업들에서 중장기적으로 나타나며, 이는 유가충격이 갖는 수요충격으로서의 역할에 기인하는 것으로 추정되었다. 마지막으로 투기적 수요교란충격의 경우, 유가충격은 산업 전반에서 공급충격과 수요충격의 특성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라, 유가충격은 에너지 집약도가 높은 산업뿐 아니라, 중간재를 공급하는 후방산업의 비중이 높은 산업에서도 공급충격의 역할을 하였다. 반면, 해당 산업의 산출물을 중간재로 이용하는 전방산업의 비중이 높거나, 최종소비재의 성격을 갖는 산업들에서는 유가충격이 수요충격의 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of different types of oil shocks on demand and supply in the manufacturing industry of Korea. For this purpose, oil shocks are classified as oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks, and oil speculative demand shocks. For empirical analysis, SVAR models including industry-level data are constructed, and the "sign restrictions" approach is employed for identification. The analysis of the impulse responses of industry-level output and price shows that, in the case of oil supply shocks to the energy-intensive industries such as petroleum, coal, chemicals, oil shocks mainly reduce supply. In contrast, in the case of oil demand shocks arising from changes in global economic activities, oil shocks are found to reduce the demand for the export-intensive industries, such as general machinery, electric machinery, precision instrument, and transport equipment. In the case of oil speculative demand shocks, for most industries, oil shocks reduce both supply and demand. In particular, for industries which are energy-intensive or have many backward industries, the reduction in supply seems more important. However, for industries which produce final consumption goods or have many forward industries, the decrease in demand looks more crucial. Finally, the output responses to these different types of oil shocks show similar patterns across most industries. The results indicate that oil shocks do not cause sectoral relocation across industries, but rather reduced production across different industries, resulting in economy-wide recessions.
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