실업률과 실질 GDP간 비선형 장․단기 관계분석
Non-linearity Long-Short Term Relationship Between Unemployment Rate and Real GDP
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초록
이 연구의 목적은 1999년 3분기부터 2017년 3분기까지의 4주 기준(OECD 기준) 공식 연령별 실업률 자료와 실질 GDP 자료를 사용하여 경제성장률 변동의 실업률 변동에 대한 이력효과와 연령별 실업률에 미치는 이질적 영향을 분석하였다. 실증분석은 비선형 자기시차 회귀모형 (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model)과 조건부 오차수정모형(Conditional Error Correction Model)의 접근방법을 사용하였으며, 실증분석 결과 모든 연령별 실업률과 실질 GDP간 안정적인 비선형 공적분 관계를 확인하였다. 즉 전체 실업률과 모든 연령층 모델에서 호경기 보다 불경기에 실업이 민감하게 반응하는 이력효과가 나타났으며, 전체 실업률을 -1% 변동시키기 위해서는 불경기 실질 GDP 9.6%, 호경기 13.7% 변동이 필요한 것으로 나타났다. 연령별로는 불경기 10대 9.2%, 20대 10.5%, 30대 9.5%, 40대 21.0%, 50대 7%, 60대 5.0%, 호경기 10대 12.6%, 20대 16.0%, 30대 14.0%, 40대 27.5%, 50대 10.0%, 60대 7.9% 변동이 필요하다. 10대와 40대를 제외한 전체실업률과 나머지 연령별 실업률의 단기균형이 경제성장률변동에 의해서 조정되지 못하고 실업률변동의 변화에 의해 조정되었던 만큼 실업대책은 단기적인 총수요 진작 정책이 아닌 기술진보, 노동생산성향상 등과 같은 총공급 측면에서의 장기 정책이 요구된다. 또한 이러한 정부의 노력뿐 아니라 현재 우리나라의 실업문제가 경기하강과 같은 단기 경기변동에 의해 발생된 문제가 아니라 과거 산업구조의 변화에 장기적으로 대응하지 못한 것에 기인하기 때문에 단기적인 성과에 조급해 하는 시민들의 인식 전환을 위한 노력도 요구된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate the age-specific Okun’s coefficients using the official OECD unemployment rate data and real GDP data from the third quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2017 and to confirm the validity of the Okun’s law. Empirical analysis used nonlinear ARDL model and Conditional Error Correction model approach, and empirical analysis confirmed stable nonlinear cointegration between all age groups and real GDP. NRDL analysis shows that hysterical effect of unemployment is sensitive to depression in all age groups. In other words, in order to change the overall unemployment rate by -1%, it is necessary to change real GDP by 9.6% during the economic downturn and by 13.7% by real GDP during the economic upswing. According to the age group, it is necessary to change of economic growth rate by 9.2% in the 10s, 10.5% in the 20s, 9.5% in the 30s, 21.0% in the 40s, 7% in the 50s, 5.0% in the 60s during the economic upturn and 12.6% in the 10s, 16.0% in the 20s, 14.0% in the 30s, 27.5% in the 40s, 10.0% in the 50s, 7.9% in the 60s during the economic downturn. Since the short-run equilibrium between the total unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for the remaining ages, except for teenagers and forties, was not adjusted by changes in economic growth rates but only by changes in unemployment rates, In the future unemployment policies require total supply policies such as technological progress and labor productivity improvement rather than short-term aggregate demand policies. In addition, not only the government’s efforts but also the fact that the unemployment problem in Korea is not caused by short-term economic fluctuations such as economic downturn, but due to the long-term failure to respond to changes in the past industrial structure, It is also necessary for people to change their perception.
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