마르코스 정부의 남중국해 정책과 국내정치적 제약: 2025년 중간선거를 중심으로

Abstract

This paper examines how the May 2025 Philippine midterm elections influenced the foreign policy of the Marcos administration, which is currently involved in a sovereignty dispute with China over the South China Sea. The 2025 Philippine midterm elections featured a competitive dynamic between the camp of President Marcos and the camp of former President Duterte, and this study pays attention to the differing approaches of the two administrations regarding the South China Sea. The Marcos government has been sternly responding to China's South China Sea strategy by strengthening its alliance with the United States to pursue a military balance while simultaneously pursuing multilateralism through solidarity with concerned countries such as Australia, Japan, and the EU. The midterm election results proved unfavorable for the Marcos faction, potentially weakening President Marcos's political authority as he enters the second half of his term. The Marcos government's pursuit of a more hardline policy on the South China Sea issue after the election can be interpreted as a strategic choice to overcome its domestic political crisis.