차이잉원의 재집권과 양안관계

Abstract

Taiwan presidential election is a confrontation between KMT, the pro-mainland political party, and DDP, which claims Taiwanese national identity. The 2020 presidential election brought up the cross-strait relations as the most controversial issue, and drew Taiwanese voters’ attention to Taiwan’s future political stance due to the pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong. ‘1992 Consensus’ is China’s win-win solution that has allowed maintaining peace across Taiwan strait and expanding cross-trait interactions since 1992. However, with the pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong as a momentum, Tsai Ing-wen expressed animosity against China, starting to insist ‘One-Taiwan’ rather than ‘One-China.’ Taiwanese voters acclaimed Tsai’s criticism that the trust on ‘One Country Two Systems’ had been already destroyed. Tsai Ing-wen, who had held slim chance of winning before the Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protest, won a landslide victory over Han Guo-yu of KMT. Despite Tsai’s a Taiwanese nationalist stance and strong denial of ‘One Country Two Systems’ at her inaugural speech, it would be impossible for her to sustain confrontation against China. This is rather attributed to Taiwan’s situational cause than Tsai’s performance on state affairs or her qualification. Considering these factors, DPP Government’s future political directions can be predicted as follows; First, in spite of Chai’s denial of ‘1992 Consensus’, practical execution is unlikely. It is improbable that contemporary international society’s anti-China sentiment would actually lead to denial of ‘One China’, and subsequently, admission of Taiwan’s independence. Second, notwithstanding the intention of reducing overall cross-trait interactions, Tsai would not take a risk of severance of all relations, which would jeopardize economy, politics, and national security. Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen will not completely rule out the possibility of meeting with Xi Jinping, if conditions are met. Third, Tsai will focus on expanding international survival space, which has been in danger of collapse due to Chinese offensive policies against Taiwan. However, the efforts would also face limitation as long as China’s ‘Principle of One China’ remains as a wall to block official diplomatic relations. The 2020 Taiwan presidential election result was determined by external factors such as the pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong and supports from the U.S. Although Tsai Ing-wen will surely strive to strengthen Taiwan’s identity, it is hard to overcome structural limitation derived from cross-trait relations. Xi Jinping, well aware of Taiwan’s situation, would not stand their attempt to overstep their bound and achieve independence. If DPP administration ‘officially’ refuses ‘One China’ and ‘One Country Two Systems’, it will be considered declaration of independence. Despite Sino-American hegemonic competition, the United States, the greatest supporter of President Tsai, would take advantage of Taiwan to put pressure on China, maintaining strategic ambiguity of ‘no Unification, no Independence’. Thus, Tsai’s political choices will be located somewhere in between two extremes; Chen Shui-bian, who unrealistically pursued Taiwan’s independence, and Ma Ying-jeou, who devoted to expanding exchanges and cooperations in overall cross-trait relationship.