중국의 대 대만정책과 대만 정권교체 이후 양안관계 전망

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examines and anticipates the future changes in the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan as a result of the transfer of power in Taiwan. The developments and characteristics of China's policy toward Taiwan in the past will be examined in comparison with its policy toward Taiwan after Xi Jinping came into power. With the regime change in Taiwan as the key variable in the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan, changes in Taiwan's policy toward China after the Taiwan presidential election in 2016 and the possibility of changes in China's policy toward Taiwan are analyzed. Under the regime of Xi Jinping, China has strongly called for ‘92 Consensus' that requires Taiwan to accept the 'One China' policy in order to prevent Taiwan from being separated and independent completely. At the same time, China maintains an attitude to embrace Taiwan as fully as possible based on its principle of ‘One Country Two Systems, Peaceful Unification.’ In addition, China is applying the principle of ‘One China’ flexibly. Rather than insisting that only the People's Republic of China represents China as it did in the past, China emphasizes its position that “both the People's Republic of China and Taiwan are China.” By urging Taiwan to fulfill ‘the Dream of the Chinese Nation,' China is trying to facilitate the public opinion of ‘One China' in Taiwan. The fact that China is strengthening its peace offensive toward Taiwan under the regime of Xi Jinping is also an important change. As Xi Jinping promotes exchange and cooperation between mainland China and Taiwan, China seeks physical integration as well as gain hearts of Taiwan people through ‘spiritual communication' between them. Being concerned about intervention of the U.S. and Japan in the matter of Taiwan and the possibility of strengthened cooperation among the U.S.-Japan-Taiwan, China is putting forth every efforts to prevent external countries from intervening. Meanwhile, since Tsai Ing-wen of Democratic Progressive Party came to power as the leader of Taiwan, significant changes are expected in Taiwan's policy toward China and the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan. As the regime of Democratic Progressive Party rejected ‘92 Consensus,' it is probable that Taiwan’s policy toward China will develop in pursuit of independence. Accordingly, China may try to prevent Taiwan from seeking independence by applying various means such as financial sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and military threat while maintaining the principle of ‘One Country Two Systems, Peaceful Unification.’ The Taiwan issue may come to the fore again as a threat to the peace and stability in East Asia.