대만 민진당의 재집권과 양안관계 전망

Abstract

The return of DPP (The Democratic Progressive Party) led to inevitable changes in cross-strait relations between china and Taiwan. First of all, even though Tsai Ing-wen reluctantly recognized ‘92 Consensus’, she will still attempt to reinforce the identity of Taiwan in political relations. It is to internalize their desire to obtain independence from China and bring attention to the existence of Taiwan. Nonetheless, Tsai leadership will not rule out various political contacts with China and Xi Jinping, with more generous view, will as well acknowledge Taiwan as its partner. Competition for the leading position regarding different status on ‘one China’ and ‘different interpretations’ is, however, unavoidable. Tsai leadership is expected to pursuit ‘risk management’ of cross-strait economic cooperation. As the most controversial issue of ‘2016 presidential election’ turns out to be the lack of transparency and unequal distribution in economic cooperation, Tsai leadership will strive to eradicate monopolization of markets by a few major companies through imposing sanctions on cross-strait economic cooperation in general. Tsai leadership will also diversify economic policies and emphasize strengthening its status in global market to reduce its excessive dependence on China. Aside from the political and economic relations with China, Taiwanese foreign policy is another significant factor that affects cross-trait relations. The U.S.’s strategic judgment on Taiwan issue has been recently changed as the U.S. perceived China as a competitor rather than a cooperator. Given the circumstance where China implements ‘maritime hegemony’, the U.S. will strategically attempt to take advantage of Taiwan so as to raise cross-trait tensions to a proper level. Thus, the strategic value of Taiwan under the U.S.’s ‘grand strategy’ is to increase. The cross-trait relations will accordingly face frequent conflicts associated with foreign factors (such as the U.S.) ever since Tsai came to power. However, China and Taiwan sympathize with the fact that the military tension in Taiwanese Strait and severance of cross-trait relations are against their interests. Hence, despite the return to power of DPP, China and Taiwan will aim for cross-trait relations of coexistence and co-prosperity rather than cling to implausible unification or independence.