중국의 무역잠재력 분석연구 - APEC 국가를 중심으로 -
China's International Trade Potential: Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model Approach- Focusing on APEC Countries
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 2000부터 2019까지 중국 및 APEC 국가 패널데이터를 사용하여 확률적 변경 중력모형과 무역 비효율 모형을 통해 중국의 무역잠재력을 분석하였다. 또한, 시차 모형을 추가하여 무역효율의 시차 효과를 분석하고 이를 통해 중국과 APEC 국가 간 교역 확대 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 실증분석 결과에 의하면 중국 및 APEC 국가의 무역 발전 형태는 불균형을 보인다. 먼저 확률적 변경 중력모형 분석결과에 의하면 교역국의 경제성장이 높을수록 수출에 대한 긍정적인 영향을 미치며, 인구요인에서는 세계최대 인구를 가진 중국의 경우 내수가 상대적으로 큰 비중을 차지하기 때문에 수출에 대한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타냈다. 무역 비효율 모형 분석결과를 따라 인적자본 요인은 무역에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다. 또한, 통화자유도, 정부 효율성 및 무역 자유 협정(FTA) 요인도 중대한 영향이 있는 것을 확인하였다. 더욱이 통화자유도 및 정부 효율성 요인은 시차 변수로써 무역효율에 대한 정(+)의 영향이 있다. 무역잠재력 통계데이터에 의하면 중국과 큰 무역잠재력이 갖는 국가는 싱가포르, 칠레, 홍콩, 태국이고 반면에 대만, 베트남, 파푸아뉴기니, 러시아 낮은 무역잠재력이 갖고 있다.
Abstract
Purpose : The purpose of this study is to analyze how to reduce trade barriers, improve the level of trade volume between the two countries, promote the economic development of the two countries and maintain a stable political situation. Research design, data, methodology : This paper uses the time varying stochastic gravity model and trade efficiency model to measure the trade efficiency based on China and APEC countries from 2000 to 2019. Results : According to the empirical results, GDP of China and trading countries have a positive impact on export promotion. The population of China and trading countries have a negative impact of export. Trade inefficiency factor has a great impact on trade. Among of them, Monetary freedom, Government effectiveness, efficiency free trade agreement are proved to have a more significant impact on the trade promotion, and these two factors are also influential on short-term and long-term time lag factors of trade efficiency. The trade potential between China and APEC countries is uneven. China has a higher trade efficiency than Singapore, Chile, Hong Kong, Thailand, while trade with Chinese Taipei, Viet Nam, Papua New, Russia is lower than others. Conclusions : It is necessary to develop high-potential national markets while maintaining trade deals with high-level trade agreement countries. Promoting exchanges and cooperation between the bordering countries by exerting a close relationship through the geographical advantage.
참고문헌 (19)
- Armstrong, S., "Asian Trade Structures and Trade Potential:AnInitial Analysis of South and East Asian Trade", ~
- Atif, M. R., "Pakistan’s agricultural exports, determinants and its potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model", THE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, 26 (2017)
- Atif, M. R., "Determinants and efficiency of Pakistan’s chemical products’ exports: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model", PLOSONE (2019)
- Battese, G E., "Frontier production functions, technical efficiency and panel data:With application to paddy farmers in India", Journal of Productivity Analysis, 3(153-169) (1992)
- Blomqvist, C. H., "Explaining Trade Flows of Singapore", Asian Economic Journal, 12(3) (1998)
- Bhattacharya, K. S., "Can South–South Trade Agreements Reduce Development Deficits?: An Exploration of SAARC during 1995–2008", Journal of South Asian Development, 9(3)
- Amita Batra, "India's global trade potential: the gravity model approach", Global Economic Review, 35(3), pp.327~361 (2006), 동서문제연구원
- Philippine Export Efficiency and Potential: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model, "Deluna, R. J.", MPRA, ~ (2014)
- Davaakhuu,O., "Has foreign investment played a role in Mongolia’s export success?", Post-Communist Economies, 27(2) (2015)
- Dadakas, D., "Examining the trade potential of the UAE using a gravity model and a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator", THE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE &ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2020)
- Huang, R., "Forecasting Trade Potential Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries: Under the Background of Belt and Road Initiative", Computational Economics (2019)
- Jiang, Z., "Trade Sustainability and Efficiency under the Belt and Road Initiative: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of China’s Trade Potential at Industry Level", EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
- Lei, Y., "Research on the Efficiency and Potential of China's Trade with South Asian Countries-Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model", SHS Web of Conferences, 96 (2021)
- Miankhel, K. A., "Australia’s export potential: an exploratory analysis", Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 19(2) (2014)
- Ravishankar, G., "The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries’ Potential Trade", The World Economy (2014)
- 李文霞, "中国农产品出⼝口丝绸之路路经济带沿线 国家的影响因素及贸易易效率-基于随机前沿引力模型的分析", 国际贸易易问题, 1 (2019)
- 庞大鹏, "俄罗斯的政治稳定: 社会基础与制度保障", 俄罗斯东欧中亚研究, 1 (2017)
- 张会清, "中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的贸易潜力研究", 国际贸易问题, 7 (2017)
- 郑建, "成员国农产品贸易易潜⼒力力与影响因素-基于随机前沿引⼒力力模型的实证分析", 三农问题, 8 (2019)