Covid-19가 무역 효율성에 미치는 영향분석 -APEC 국가를 중심으로
Analysis of the Impact of Covid-19 on Trade Efficiency -Focus on the APEC Countries
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초록
본 연구는 Covid-19가 전 세계로 급격하게 퍼지면서 한국을 포함한 APEC 국가의 무역효율성에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이와 관련된 무역잠재력을 분석하고자 한다. 실증분석을 위해 2000-2020까지 한국을 포함한 APEC 국가의 패널데이터를 이용하였고, Frontier 4.1 통계 프로그램을 활용하여 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과를 살펴보면, Covid-19은 APEC 국가 간의 무역효율에 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 경제규모 요인(GDP)이 한국의 수출증대에 긍정적 영향이 있었으나, 한국을 포함한 APEC 국가 인구증가는 자국내 시장 확대 즉, 내수가 커짐으로서 수출에는 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 확인되었다. 또한, 금융자유도, 정부효율 및 자유무역협정은 무역효율을 높이는 효과가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 더불어, 무역잠재력 분석결과에 의하면 한국의 무역잠재력이 높은 국가는 중국, 일본, 미국, 홍콩, 대만 순으로 나타났다.
Abstract
Purpose : This study analyzes the impact of the rapid spread of Covid-19 worldwide on the trade efficiency of APEC countries, including South Korea and trade potential calculation. Research design, data, methodology : This paper uses panel data of APEC countries including South Korea between 2000-2020 were taken into account and analyzed by frontier 4.1 statistical program. Results : According to the empirical results, Covid-19 has a negative impact on the trade efficiency among APEC countries. Although the economic scale factor (GDP) has had a positive impact on South Korea's export growth, the increase in the population of APEC countries, including South Korea, has expanded the domestic market. In other words, it is confirmed that the increase of domestic demand has a negative impact on exports. In addition, financial freedom, government efficiency and free trade agreements have improved trade efficiency. Conclusions : The results showed that the partner countries with South Korea with high trade potential are China, Japan, the United States, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
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