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대북전략의 정치경제학적 접근: 우회 전략으로서의 개발협력

The Political Economic Logic of DPRK Nuclear Strategy: Separative Engagement as a Proxy Solution

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주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 대북전략과 북한의 정치경제 사이의 관계를 모형을 통해 분석하고 있다. 이 과정에서 우리는 북한 정권과 주민 사이의 주인 – 대리인 문제가 대내적 체제안정의 차원에서 북핵 문제의 주요한 원인임을 탈북, 부패, 통제수준 사이의 상호의존 관계를 통해 보인다. 그리고 이러한 모형을 확장시켜 북핵 문제에 대한 기존의 두 가지접근방식, 즉 비핵화의 우선 이행을 요구하는 제재 중심의 전략과, 관계적 관여의 우선적 제공에 이어 체제변화를 유도하는 구조적 관여 중심의 전략이 모두 여과의 문제로 인해 실패할 수 있음을 지적한다. 이와 같이 기존의 비핵화 전략의 장단을 분해하여 비교분석함으로써 본 연구가 제시하는 대안적 전략은 비핵화의 대가로 분리적 관여를 제공하는 것이다. 체제변동 요인을 제거한 구조적 관여는 북한이 수용가능하면서도 비핵화를 담보할 수 있다. 동시에 이러한 전략은 북한의 비핵화 의지를 시험하는리트머스 용지의 역할을 한다. 본 연구는 첨단산업 분야에서의 국영기업 육성과 광물자원에 대한 주변국들의 개발 참여를 분리적 관여의 구체적 사례로 제시한다.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between the political economic structure and foreign policy of North Korea. By mathematically modelling domestic interactions such as market control, escaping, and corruption of sheriffs, we argue that the fundamental agency problem of personalistic dictatorship can be adduced as the main reason of nuclear development. The traditional foreign strategies of international community, both economic sanction which demands preemptive denuclearization and structural engagement which induces transition to capitalism, can fail because of filtering problem. The separative engagement which we adduce as an alternative strategy intends to take the strengths and make up for the weakness of the traditional strategies. The deviation of North Korea can be effectively prevented by forming an international economic belt, and the possibility of making a big deal increases as the tranformative effect of engagement vanishes. The denuclearization of North Korea can be achieved only by analyzing the incentive structure of regime in depth, not by a haphazard jumble of improvisation.

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