김정은 체제의 경제 개혁․개방 전망과 과제

Abstract

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might have worried about his country's troublesome economy since his school days in Switzerland. Hearing about the developed aspect of China from his father Kim Jong-il, who visited the neighboring country and held a summit with the Chinese leader in 2000, the young Kim has probably decided to make China a model for the North's economic development. Undoubtedly as a result, North Korea has enjoyed an ever closer economic cooperation with China since 2009, when Kim Jong-un made his debut on the political scene in his capacity as successor-designate. And the North has since shown a change in the focus of its economic policies thereafter as evidenced by North Korean media's unprecedented accent on the need to improve people's standard of living. The death of Kim Jong-il in December 2011 was followed by a series of noteworthy developments in the North, which included the formation of a task force entrusted with studying ways to improve the North's economic management, and the transfer of all military functions that earn foreign currency, except arms exports, to the Cabinet. Moreover, the ruling Workers' Party of (North) Korea (WPK) toughened its control over the military while elevating the status and influence of the Cabinet. In addition, the North has downsized the working squads at model cooperative farms and allowed enterprises to have more freedom furnished with a self-supporting accounting system for their efficient management, while launching full-fledged development of two special economic zones in Rason city and Hwanggumphyong islet. Under young Kim's leadership, North Korea has become more active than ever in pursuing economic reforms and trying to open up. But in the course of implementing the so-called June 28 economic measures, which reportedly call for giving enterprises more freedom in their management and more incentives to cooperative farms, there came growing voices from farmers against more intensive state control over them and other unfavorable developments including a surge in the market exchange rates and skyrocketing inflation. For a breakthrough in its adverse situation and its economic development, the Kim Jong-un regime is required to introduce "family-based farming" as soon as possible, moderate its isolation-oriented ideology, minimize the WPK's interference in economic affairs and restore public confidence in the regime. This will demonstrate its unrelenting will to launch substantial reforms and open up. The new North Korean leadership also needs to improve relations with neighboring countries and attract more foreign capital, while bringing in up-to-date technologies from abroad. It is desirable for South Korea and the international community to provide the North with economic assistance, if and when the North's new leadership is willing to go ahead with reforms and open up to outsiders. North Korea's successful reforms and opening-up, if any, will increase the influence of the pragmatic technocrats in the country, and help create a peaceful atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula, which could eventually achieve the unification of the two Koreas.